Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (86%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 14¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over86¢Under14¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$294.56

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 14¢

-72% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over86%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$816.47

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$51.29

Under4 traders

Total Value$189.43

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$345.85

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 65.8¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	+$113.02	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Over leg	Overavg 65.8¢	$868.97	$1.1K	+$374.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.5¢	$611.54	$349.96	-$261.58
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 44.7¢	$420.06	$359.85	+$28.85	28% 121-308 (429)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 42.4¢	$411.72	$333.37	-$63.05	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.2¢	$166.7	$247.64	+$80.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.4¢	$201.81	$85.73	-$143.99
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 22.6¢	$203.4	$184.76	-$18.64	53% 214-189 (403)
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.6¢	$214.51	$142.35	-$22.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 69.4¢	$34.64	$42.4	+$3.98
RN1CTR	Underavg 50.4¢	$484.75	$144.41	-$340.34	52% 287-270 (557)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 67¢	$200	$137	+$3	57% 104-80 (184)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 47.9¢	$135	$92.48	+$27.76	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 85¢	$85.85	$82.82	-$3.03	59% 1201-850 (2051)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 85¢	$85	$82	-$3	61% 78-49 (127)
dips.<$100	Overavg 85¢	$64.6	$62.32	-$2.28	45% 125-154 (279)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$92.36	$36.21	-$3.7	49% 427-449 (876)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$18	$5.67	-$1.17	48% 86-95 (181)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$10	$3.15	-$0.65	49% 193-198 (391)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,138.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$113.02

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Over$868.9765.8¢+$374.61

Under$611.5431.5¢-$261.58

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$420.06

Value

$359.85

PnL

+$28.85

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$411.72

Value

$333.37

PnL

-$63.05

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Over$166.755.2¢+$80.94

Under$201.8142.4¢-$143.99

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$203.4

Value

$184.76

PnL

-$18.64

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Both legs:

Under$214.5122.6¢-$22.62

Over$34.6469.4¢+$3.98

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$484.75

Value

$144.41

PnL

-$340.34

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$137

PnL

+$3

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$92.48

PnL

+$27.76

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$85.85

Value

$82.82

PnL

-$3.03

Record

59%

1201-850 (2051)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$85

Value

$82

PnL

-$3

Record

61%

78-49 (127)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$64.6

Value

$62.32

PnL

-$2.28

Record

45%

125-154 (279)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$92.36

Value

$36.21

PnL

-$3.7

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$1.17

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.65

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.