Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 95¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 10

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 94.5¢

+85% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares20,295

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Under6 traders

Total Value$702.53

Total Shares3,799

Combined PnL-$361.32

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 50.2¢	$5.9K	$9.6K	+$3.7K	41% 29-42 (71)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.5¢	$6.6K	$6.9K	+$318.61	29% 32-78 (110)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 68¢	$658.79	$789.58	+$130.79	57% 104-80 (184)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$716.93	$405.58	-$311.34	52% 119-110 (229)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.9¢	$197.32	$216.23	+$18.91	53% 330-294 (624)
NM NM-P	Overavg 52¢	$110.14	$111.25	+$1.11	55% 1709-1396 (3105)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 49¢	$132	$74	-$58	5% 29-539 (568)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$14.94	$5.56	-$9.37	69% 34-15 (49)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.53	$0.99	-$1.53	2% 5-239 (244)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.13	$0.16	+$0.02	53% 214-189 (403)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$5,920.58

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$6,619.96

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$318.61

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$658.79

Value

$789.58

PnL

+$130.79

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$716.93

Value

$405.58

PnL

-$311.34

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$197.32

Value

$216.23

PnL

+$18.91

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$110.14

Value

$111.25

PnL

+$1.11

Record

55%

1709-1396 (3105)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$132

Value

$74

PnL

-$58

Record

29-539 (568)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.94

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$9.37

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.53

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$1.53

Record

5-239 (244)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.