Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (67%) · Mavericks at 99¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 10

Mavericks99¢Pacers1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 67%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 99¢

+66% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks99%

Pacers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks12 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares25,848

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares30,191

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Mavericks — 67%Pacers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

sniperPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Mavericksavg 60¢	$5.8K	$8.5K	+$2.8K	55% 1053-856 (1909)
HI hi774c	Mavericksavg 60¢	$5.5K	$7.7K	+$2.1K	3% 9-294 (303)
SA Sassy-BucketCTR	Pacersavg 40¢	$10.4K	$4.3K	$-6.1K	— 1-2 (3)
RN1ARB<$100	Pacersavg 44.3¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	-$512.46	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 44.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$946.75
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51.1¢	$643.63	$693.4	+$434.3
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mavericksavg 40.4¢	$648.27	$1.6K	+$980.9	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 40.4¢	$891.48	$1.2K	+$996.27
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 46.7¢	$430.2	$414.83	-$15.37
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 50.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	-$224.17	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 50.5¢	$858.6	$765.78	-$535.27
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 55.3¢	$668.5	$665.16	+$311.1
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pacersavg 59.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	-$216.96	22% 85-296 (381)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 54.3¢	$617.35	$625.02	+$354.27
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 59.7¢	$754.47	$568.67	-$571.23
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pacersavg 41¢	$1.5K	$710.97	-$838.58	67% 762-377 (1139)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mavericksavg 43.7¢	$370.59	$632.05	+$172.35	28% 122-309 (431)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 43.7¢	$353.78	$445.54	+$265.94
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 46.1¢	$190.98	$186.5	-$93.59
AN Anon455	Mavericksavg 60¢	$529.92	$494.5	-$35.42	47% 87-97 (184)
GC GC-P	Mavericksavg 60¢	$373.4	$421.32	+$47.92	7% 18-249 (267)
NM NM-P	Mavericksavg 60¢	$340	$415	+$75	55% 1709-1396 (3105)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Mavericksavg 62¢	$193.18	$224.21	-$35.28	26% 55-158 (213)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47.7¢	$121.54	$114.76	-$73.09
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 62¢	$123.38	$109.45	+$37.81
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Pacersavg 44.4¢	$185.89	$188.55	-$116.75	57% 104-80 (184)
VE Venusian	Mavericksavg 43.4¢	$60.6	$173.74	+$111.14	27% 128-352 (480)
LI Limousin<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$45.99	$97.29	+$51.3	26% 127-364 (491)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$58.37	$90.5	+$32.13	34% 111-220 (331)
PA Pan9X	Mavericksavg 65.6¢	$118.06	$83.21	-$22.16	49% 194-203 (397)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 73¢	$87.09	$82.28	-$4.81	53% 218-191 (409)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pacersavg 47.9¢	$83.38	$51.9	-$31.48	48% 436-463 (899)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Pacersavg 13¢	$11.44	$39.6	+$1.76	55% 78-63 (141)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Pacersavg 13¢	$6.89	$23.85	+$7.16	19% 40-176 (216)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Mavericksavg 95¢	$13.8	$11	-$2.8	59% 1209-854 (2063)
LI LightParadox<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$0.9	$2.75	+$1.85	28% 131-332 (463)

HomeRunHazard

Mavericks

Invested

$5,786.54

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

hi774c

Mavericks

Invested

$5,550

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

9-294 (303)

Sassy-BucketCTR

Pacers

Invested

$10,350.4

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

—

1-2 (3)

RN1ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,666.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$512.46

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,407.6444.3¢-$946.75

Mavericks$643.6351.1¢+$434.3

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$648.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$980.9

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Mavericks$891.4840.4¢+$996.27

Pacers$430.246.7¢-$15.37

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,212.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$224.17

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Pacers$858.650.5¢-$535.27

Mavericks$668.555.3¢+$311.1

takeormakeARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,025.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$216.96

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Both legs:

Mavericks$617.3554.3¢+$354.27

Pacers$754.4759.7¢-$571.23

SunlineTickerCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,549.55

Value

$710.97

PnL

-$838.58

Record

67%

762-377 (1139)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$370.59

Value

$632.05

PnL

+$172.35

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Both legs:

Mavericks$353.7843.7¢+$265.94

Pacers$190.9846.1¢-$93.59

Anon455

Mavericks

Invested

$529.92

Value

$494.5

PnL

-$35.42

Record

47%

87-97 (184)

GC-P

Mavericks

Invested

$373.4

Value

$421.32

PnL

+$47.92

Record

18-249 (267)

NM-P

Mavericks

Invested

$340

Value

$415

PnL

+$75

Record

55%

1709-1396 (3105)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$193.18

Value

$224.21

PnL

-$35.28

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

Both legs:

Pacers$121.5447.7¢-$73.09

Mavericks$123.3862¢+$37.81

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Pacers

Invested

$185.89

Value

$188.55

PnL

-$116.75

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Venusian

Mavericks

Invested

$60.6

Value

$173.74

PnL

+$111.14

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

Limousin<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$45.99

Value

$97.29

PnL

+$51.3

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$58.37

Value

$90.5

PnL

+$32.13

Record

34%

111-220 (331)

Pan9X

Mavericks

Invested

$118.06

Value

$83.21

PnL

-$22.16

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$87.09

Value

$82.28

PnL

-$4.81

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$83.38

Value

$51.9

PnL

-$31.48

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

lryyyCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$11.44

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$1.76

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$6.89

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$7.16

Record

19%

40-176 (216)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.8

Value

$11

PnL

-$2.8

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

LightParadox<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$1.85

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

sniperPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.