Spread: Pacers (-4.5)

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (21%) · Mavericks at 73¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 10

Pacers28¢Mavericks72¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 21%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 72.5¢

+42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers28%

Mavericks73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares37,521

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Pacers11 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares40,195

Combined PnL-$209.42

Mavericks — 21%Pacers — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Mavericksavg 51¢	$13.4K	$15.2K	+$131.87	1% 4-291 (295)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$14.9K	$14.8K	-$173.59	28% 121-308 (429)
LU luckycat888888	Mavericksavg 50.9¢	$5.4K	$7.7K	+$2.3K	4% 3-72 (75)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 59¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$96.09	53% 214-189 (403)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$31.09
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49¢	$490	$425	-$65
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Pacersavg 41.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21.31	57% 104-80 (184)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 49.4¢	$681.33	$573.34	-$107.99	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.4¢	$410.07	$302.98	-$107.09
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 63.7¢	$271.25	$270.35	-$0.9
RN1ARB<$100	Pacersavg 45.7¢	$663.42	$475.39	-$60.03	52% 287-270 (557)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 57.7¢	$224.59	$284.23	+$72.27
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 45.7¢	$323.46	$191.16	-$132.3
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 59.2¢	$320.86	$392.76	+$71.9	53% 330-294 (624)
VE VenusianCTR	Pacersavg 30¢	$360.57	$372.07	+$11.51	27% 128-350 (478)
LI LimousinCTR	Pacersavg 48.7¢	$550.92	$267.2	-$1.3	26% 127-363 (490)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 33.5¢	$146.4	$167.75	+$21.35	49% 427-449 (876)
SE sentrioCTR	Pacersavg 49.2¢	$134.64	$129.32	-$5.32	28% 99-254 (353)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pacersavg 40.1¢	$176.08	$120.73	-$55.36	22% 84-295 (379)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pacersavg 30¢	$80.95	$83.53	+$2.58	28% 130-331 (461)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Pacersavg 37¢	$74	$55	-$19	26% 121-344 (465)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43.4¢	$82.83	$41.68	-$11.29	49% 193-198 (391)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38¢	$7.98	$7.67	-$0.32	59% 1201-850 (2051)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Mavericks

Invested

$13,448.45

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$131.87

Record

4-291 (295)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$14,933.88

Value

$14.8K

PnL

-$173.59

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

luckycat888888

Mavericks

Invested

$5,396.66

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

3-72 (75)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,749.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$96.09

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

Both legs:

Mavericks$1,259.9259¢-$31.09

Pacers$49049¢-$65

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,050.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21.31

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$681.33

Value

$573.34

PnL

-$107.99

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Pacers$410.0749.4¢-$107.09

Mavericks$271.2563.7¢-$0.9

RN1ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$663.42

Value

$475.39

PnL

-$60.03

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Both legs:

Mavericks$224.5957.7¢+$72.27

Pacers$323.4645.7¢-$132.3

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$320.86

Value

$392.76

PnL

+$71.9

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

VenusianCTR

Pacers

Invested

$360.57

Value

$372.07

PnL

+$11.51

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

LimousinCTR

Pacers

Invested

$550.92

Value

$267.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$146.4

Value

$167.75

PnL

+$21.35

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

sentrioCTR

Pacers

Invested

$134.64

Value

$129.32

PnL

-$5.32

Record

28%

99-254 (353)

takeormakeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$176.08

Value

$120.73

PnL

-$55.36

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$80.95

Value

$83.53

PnL

+$2.58

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$74

Value

$55

PnL

-$19

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$82.83

Value

$41.68

PnL

-$11.29

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$0.32

Record

59%

1201-850 (2051)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.