Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 95¢ · $821 held · ended Nov 14

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$820.98

Combined PnL

$100.1

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 95¢

+107% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$687.91

Total Shares917

Combined PnL+$156.08

Over7 traders

Total Value$133.08

Total Shares605

Combined PnL-$55.98

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 44.3¢	$400.74	$491.9	+$91.16	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 38.6¢	$60.24	$121.64	+$61.39	48% 871-954 (1825)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 64.7¢	$59.24	$58.72	-$0.52	51% 487-460 (947)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$41.55	$43.67	+$2.12	37% 872-1456 (2328)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 20.9¢	$17.95	$30.9	+$12.95	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$43.67	$30.23	-$13.44	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$153.74	$18.12	-$135.62	45% 430-535 (965)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 78¢	$9.52	$11.47	+$1.95	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$5.63	$6.67	+$1.03	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 39¢	$2.09	$4.17	+$2.09	36% 896-1591 (2487)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 24.2¢	$384.16	$3.12	+$77.11	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$0.49	$0.36	-$0.13	48% 505-558 (1063)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$400.74

Value

$491.9

PnL

+$91.16

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$60.24

Value

$121.64

PnL

+$61.39

Record

48%

871-954 (1825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$59.24

Value

$58.72

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.55

Value

$43.67

PnL

+$2.12

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.95

Value

$30.9

PnL

+$12.95

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.67

Value

$30.23

PnL

-$13.44

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$153.74

Value

$18.12

PnL

-$135.62

Record

45%

430-535 (965)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$1.95

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.63

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.09

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$2.09

Record

36%

896-1591 (2487)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$384.16

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$77.11

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.