Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$357.72

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 99.5¢

+60% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,660

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$516.74

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL-$726.19

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 63.5¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$644.18	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 55¢	$307.58	$495.98	+$188.4	51% 487-460 (947)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 60¢	$248.62	$372.15	+$123.53	38% 507-837 (1344)
RN1	Overavg 62.9¢	$158.28	$268.26	+$109.98	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 38.1¢	$331.29	$264.49	-$66.8	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 33.1¢	$415.83	$125.6	-$290.23	45% 430-535 (965)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 39¢	$391.9	$100.5	-$291.4	52% 2625-2462 (5087)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 79¢	$72.46	$87.59	+$15.13	37% 872-1456 (2328)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$69.6	$23.2	-$46.4	48% 505-558 (1063)
AN anothercoin<$100	Overavg 69¢	$8.83	$11.52	+$2.69	37% 1516-2567 (4083)
balthazar<$100	Overavg 90¢	$7.03	$7.03	+$0	44% 5041-6482 (11523)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46.9¢	$7.54	$1.61	-$5.93	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$24.82	$1.24	-$23.58	36% 925-1612 (2537)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 19.5¢	$1.95	$0.1	-$1.85	43% 933-1261 (2194)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,604.28

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$644.18

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$307.58

Value

$495.98

PnL

+$188.4

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$248.62

Value

$372.15

PnL

+$123.53

Record

38%

507-837 (1344)

RN1

Over

Invested

$158.28

Value

$268.26

PnL

+$109.98

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$331.29

Value

$264.49

PnL

-$66.8

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$415.83

Value

$125.6

PnL

-$290.23

Record

45%

430-535 (965)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$391.9

Value

$100.5

PnL

-$291.4

Record

52%

2625-2462 (5087)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$72.46

Value

$87.59

PnL

+$15.13

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

micky456CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.6

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$46.4

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

anothercoin<$100

Over

Invested

$8.83

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$2.69

Record

37%

1516-2567 (4083)

balthazar<$100

Over

Invested

$7.03

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

5041-6482 (11523)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.54

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$5.93

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.82

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$23.58

Record

36%

925-1612 (2537)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.85

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.