Spread: Spurs (-4.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (56%) · Spurs at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs>99¢Warriors<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 56%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$61.64

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 99.6¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs100%

Warriors0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,813

Combined PnL+$121.83

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$45.85

Total Shares1,009

Combined PnL-$183.47

Spurs — 56%Warriors — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suitcase6628	Spursavg 93¢	$930	$985	+$55	64% 535-298 (833)
MI micky456	Spursavg 93¢	$465	$492.5	+$27.5	47% 489-544 (1033)
RN1	Spursavg 87¢	$166.17	$188.14	+$21.97	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 87.7¢	$71.06	$79.79	+$8.72	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SU suntori<$100	Spursavg 77.4¢	$31.69	$40.34	+$8.64	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 24¢	$44.88	$28.05	-$16.83	36% 883-1569 (2452)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Warriorsavg 21¢	$117.56	$8.39	-$109.17	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 22¢	$314.43	$7.64	-$41.59	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 15¢	$17.65	$1.76	-$15.88	55% 1350-1126 (2476)

suitcase6628

Spurs

Invested

$930

Value

$985

PnL

+$55

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

micky456

Spurs

Invested

$465

Value

$492.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$166.17

Value

$188.14

PnL

+$21.97

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$71.06

Value

$79.79

PnL

+$8.72

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

suntori<$100

Spurs

Invested

$31.69

Value

$40.34

PnL

+$8.64

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

LimousinCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$44.88

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$16.83

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

FlaznorpCTR

Warriors

Invested

$117.56

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$109.17

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$314.43

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$41.59

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$17.65

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$15.88

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.