Spread: Spurs (-24.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (38%) · Spurs at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs75¢Warriors25¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$17.03

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 74.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs75%

Warriors26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,646

Combined PnL+$282.03

Warriors8 traders

Total Value$621.18

Total Shares2,289

Combined PnL-$299.06

Spurs — 38%Warriors — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 66.3¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	+$178.13	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Warriorsavg 43.1¢	$649.61	$384.72	-$264.89	51% 470-452 (922)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Warriorsavg 32.9¢	$600.35	$382.83	+$17.32	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 32.9¢	$334.28	$258.91	-$75.37
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 55¢	$91.5	$123.93	+$92.7
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 52¢	$553.48	$324.48	-$56.74	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.5¢	$123.14	$185.51	+$87.75
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 52¢	$283.46	$138.98	-$144.48
JU justaluckydude	Spursavg 60.1¢	$198.38	$245.97	+$47.59	44% 422-532 (954)
TO topdogbigboi	Spursavg 49.4¢	$126.72	$175.74	+$49.02	37% 841-1416 (2257)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Warriorsavg 46¢	$135.61	$75.17	-$60.43	63% 82-49 (131)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 34¢	$68	$62	-$6	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 34.2¢	$144.2	$50.49	+$16.09	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 38.4¢	$86.04	$23.29	+$4.85	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 26¢	$45.96	$16.74	+$12.78	47% 489-544 (1033)
TA takeormake<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$7	$9.66	+$2.66	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
LI Limousin<$100	Spursavg 18¢	$1.98	$6.61	+$4.63	36% 883-1569 (2452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 45¢	$8.68	$5.98	-$2.7	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 26¢	$6.53	$2.78	+$1.25	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$1,894.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$178.13

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Warriors

Invested

$649.61

Value

$384.72

PnL

-$264.89

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$600.35

Value

$382.83

PnL

+$17.32

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Warriors$334.2832.9¢-$75.37

Spurs$91.555¢+$92.7

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$553.48

Value

$324.48

PnL

-$56.74

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Spurs$123.1449.5¢+$87.75

Warriors$283.4652¢-$144.48

justaluckydude

Spurs

Invested

$198.38

Value

$245.97

PnL

+$47.59

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

topdogbigboi

Spurs

Invested

$126.72

Value

$175.74

PnL

+$49.02

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Zzzz87CTR

Warriors

Invested

$135.61

Value

$75.17

PnL

-$60.43

Record

63%

82-49 (131)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$68

Value

$62

PnL

-$6

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$144.2

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$16.09

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$86.04

Value

$23.29

PnL

+$4.85

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

micky456CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$45.96

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$12.78

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

takeormake<$100

Spurs

Invested

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$2.66

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

Limousin<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.98

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$4.63

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.68

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$2.7

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$6.53

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpurs 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.