Spread: Spurs (-22.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (58%) · Spurs at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs81¢Warriors19¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$292.86

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 80.5¢

+59% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs81%

Warriors20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,113

Combined PnL+$365.94

Warriors5 traders

Total Value$408.1

Total Shares2,049

Combined PnL-$658.81

Spurs — 58%Warriors — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 45.2¢	$470.63	$697.18	+$226.54	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1	Spursavg 62¢	$360	$377.53	+$17.52	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Spursavg 45.3¢	$246.31	$318.27	+$71.96	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 45.3¢	$149.95	$221.91	+$71.96
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 33¢	$96.36	$96.36	+$0
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Warriorsavg 55¢	$833.27	$295.43	-$537.84	11% 55-453 (508)
JU justaluckydude	Spursavg 67¢	$198.27	$238.28	+$40.01	44% 422-532 (954)
LI LightParadox	Spursavg 23¢	$36.68	$106.85	+$70.17	36% 911-1587 (2498)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 32¢	$83.48	$50.87	-$32.61	51% 470-452 (922)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Spursavg 46.3¢	$32.73	$47.32	+$14.59	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$105.19	$46.62	-$58.57	37% 497-832 (1329)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 45¢	$38.45	$25.84	-$2.6	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 73.4¢	$145.62	$11.54	-$28.9	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 41¢	$4.52	$3.64	-$0.88	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
MI micky456<$100	Spursavg 67¢	$1.67	$1.05	-$0.29	47% 489-544 (1033)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$470.63

Value

$697.18

PnL

+$226.54

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$360

Value

$377.53

PnL

+$17.52

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$246.31

Value

$318.27

PnL

+$71.96

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Spurs$149.9545.3¢+$71.96

Warriors$96.3633¢+$0

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Warriors

Invested

$833.27

Value

$295.43

PnL

-$537.84

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

justaluckydude

Spurs

Invested

$198.27

Value

$238.28

PnL

+$40.01

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

LightParadox

Spurs

Invested

$36.68

Value

$106.85

PnL

+$70.17

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$83.48

Value

$50.87

PnL

-$32.61

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

topdogbigboi<$100

Spurs

Invested

$32.73

Value

$47.32

PnL

+$14.59

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Warriors

Invested

$105.19

Value

$46.62

PnL

-$58.57

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$38.45

Value

$25.84

PnL

-$2.6

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$145.62

Value

$11.54

PnL

-$28.9

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.52

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

micky456<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.29

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.