Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 246.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$10.3

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 97¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,476

Combined PnL+$110.55

Over1 trader

Total Value$43.33

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL-$120.85

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 93¢	$930	$975.5	+$45.5	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 92.4¢	$631.19	$666.27	+$35.08	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
AN Anon455	Underavg 92¢	$357.68	$379.25	+$21.58	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 94¢	$190.45	$196.3	+$5.85	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 92.5¢	$97.14	$102.43	+$5.29	49% 786-829 (1615)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 95¢	$58.64	$51.08	-$5.11	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 92.5¢	$41.81	$44.11	+$2.3	55% 729-596 (1325)
NE neymar1CTR	Overavg 7.4¢	$164.18	$43.33	-$120.85	— 2-6 (8)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 97.2¢	$4.86	$4.93	+$0.06	60% 2757-1855 (4612)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$930

Value

$975.5

PnL

+$45.5

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$631.19

Value

$666.27

PnL

+$35.08

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$357.68

Value

$379.25

PnL

+$21.58

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$190.45

Value

$196.3

PnL

+$5.85

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$97.14

Value

$102.43

PnL

+$5.29

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$58.64

Value

$51.08

PnL

-$5.11

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$41.81

Value

$44.11

PnL

+$2.3

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

neymar1CTR

Over

Invested

$164.18

Value

$43.33

PnL

-$120.85

Record

—

2-6 (8)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.06

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.