Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 238.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$66.79

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 90.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,429

Combined PnL+$155.55

Over2 traders

Total Value$150.96

Total Shares1,609

Combined PnL-$88.76

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 85¢	$856.37	$942.25	+$85.88	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 82.3¢	$478.4	$508.23	+$45.53	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 85¢	$313.65	$346.86	+$33.21	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 88.6¢	$268.45	$231.15	-$34.75	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
NE neymar1CTR	Overavg 15¢	$233.25	$147.73	-$85.53	— 2-6 (8)
AN Anon455	Underavg 85¢	$118.49	$131.04	+$12.55	46% 200-233 (433)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83¢	$103.03	$110.84	+$7.81	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 85¢	$32.3	$35.72	+$3.42	49% 786-829 (1615)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 83¢	$12.45	$13.58	+$1.13	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 85¢	$7.31	$8.08	+$0.77	55% 729-596 (1325)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$6.47	$3.23	-$3.23	36% 410-719 (1129)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$856.37

Value

$942.25

PnL

+$85.88

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$478.4

Value

$508.23

PnL

+$45.53

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$313.65

Value

$346.86

PnL

+$33.21

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$268.45

Value

$231.15

PnL

-$34.75

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

neymar1CTR

Over

Invested

$233.25

Value

$147.73

PnL

-$85.53

Record

—

2-6 (8)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$118.49

Value

$131.04

PnL

+$12.55

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$103.03

Value

$110.84

PnL

+$7.81

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$32.3

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$3.42

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$12.45

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$1.13

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.31

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$0.77

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.47

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$3.23

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.