Spread: Rockets (-9.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (50%) · Rockets at 51¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets51¢Warriors49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$43.03

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 51¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets51%

Warriors49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets7 traders

Total Value$890.65

Total Shares1,622

Combined PnL+$137.78

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$973.68

Total Shares1,887

Combined PnL-$94.74

Rockets — 50%Warriors — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Rocketsavg 48.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$64.96	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48.8¢	$752.34	$786.37	+$43.39
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 46.8¢	$450.56	$472.13	+$21.57
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$52.7	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52.2¢	$595.02	$604.51	+$9.49
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 53.4¢	$517.59	$455.4	-$62.19
RN1ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 44.3¢	$879.01	$844.81	+$73.81	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 44.3¢	$556.12	$640.46	+$84.35
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 51.7¢	$215.54	$204.35	-$10.54
MA MadridTime	Rocketsavg 44¢	$326.66	$378.77	+$52.11	32% 444-952 (1396)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Warriorsavg 56¢	$334.94	$319.99	-$14.95	48% 540-590 (1130)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rocketsavg 48¢	$231.9	$289.7	+$57.8	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Rocketsavg 54.2¢	$484.62	$208.17	-$62.45	47% 279-315 (594)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 54.2¢	$171.26	$110.65	-$69.53
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 54.2¢	$81.37	$97.51	+$7.08
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$596.51	$198.76	-$12.68	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Warriorsavg 48¢	$152.16	$155.33	+$3.17	39% 233-367 (600)
VE Venusian	Rocketsavg 47.3¢	$132.56	$142.96	+$10.4	31% 444-971 (1415)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 48¢	$95.99	$97.99	+$2	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 48.9¢	$97.63	$91.4	-$6.23	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Warriorsavg 55.2¢	$663.5	$75.27	-$52.27	55% 843-701 (1544)
LI LightParadox	Rocketsavg 42¢	$105.28	$68.41	+$16.98	31% 441-967 (1408)
PA Pan9XCTR	Warriorsavg 49.1¢	$188.02	$34.95	-$13.78	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rocketsavg 47¢	$5.64	$6.12	+$0.48	49% 973-998 (1971)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Rocketsavg 39¢	$2.34	$2.4	+$0.06	47% 350-393 (743)
SU suntori<$100	Rocketsavg 41¢	$2.34	$2.28	-$0.06	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,258.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$64.96

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Rockets$752.3448.8¢+$43.39

Warriors$450.5646.8¢+$21.57

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,112.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$52.7

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Rockets$595.0252.2¢+$9.49

Warriors$517.5953.4¢-$62.19

RN1ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$879.01

Value

$844.81

PnL

+$73.81

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Rockets$556.1244.3¢+$84.35

Warriors$215.5451.7¢-$10.54

MadridTime

Rockets

Invested

$326.66

Value

$378.77

PnL

+$52.11

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Warriors

Invested

$334.94

Value

$319.99

PnL

-$14.95

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rockets

Invested

$231.9

Value

$289.7

PnL

+$57.8

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$484.62

Value

$208.17

PnL

-$62.45

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

Both legs:

Rockets$171.2654.2¢-$69.53

Warriors$81.3754.2¢+$7.08

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$596.51

Value

$198.76

PnL

-$12.68

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydudeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$152.16

Value

$155.33

PnL

+$3.17

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Venusian

Rockets

Invested

$132.56

Value

$142.96

PnL

+$10.4

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$95.99

Value

$97.99

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

LimousinCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$97.63

Value

$91.4

PnL

-$6.23

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Warriors

Invested

$663.5

Value

$75.27

PnL

-$52.27

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

LightParadox

Rockets

Invested

$105.28

Value

$68.41

PnL

+$16.98

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Pan9XCTR

Warriors

Invested

$188.02

Value

$34.95

PnL

-$13.78

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.64

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.48

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

SnakeBall<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

suntori<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.