Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Warriors (52%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (55%) · Rockets at 48¢ · $50K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets48¢Warriors52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 55%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 48¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets48%

Warriors52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets11 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares48,680

Combined PnL+$488.57

Warriors9 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares42,281

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Rockets — 55%Warriors — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rocketsavg 48.8¢	$21.8K	$22.6K	+$864.52	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Warriorsavg 51¢	$17.4K	$15.0K	$-2.4K	48% 540-590 (1130)
EdZacharyCTR	Rocketsavg 43¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$200	3% 3-113 (116)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$11.11	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 50.5¢	$692.63	$706.35	+$13.72
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$721.57	$696.75	-$24.83
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 57¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$844.26	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50.4¢	$1.0K	$938.08	-$76.58	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50.4¢	$596.54	$550.56	-$49.03
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 57.3¢	$415.06	$387.52	-$27.55
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 57¢	$723.9	$749.3	+$25.4	52% 235-217 (452)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Warriorsavg 44.3¢	$683.55	$565.39	-$21.8	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 44.3¢	$443.12	$410.37	-$33.34
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 54.6¢	$143.48	$155.02	+$11.53
BI biying88888ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 56.4¢	$788.84	$554.54	-$14.48	38% 128-207 (335)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 56.4¢	$355	$308.21	-$46.79
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 44¢	$212.52	$246.33	+$32.31
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocketsavg 50.5¢	$384.07	$406.6	+$22.53	44% 143-184 (327)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 56.1¢	$1.7K	$366.03	-$219.7	55% 843-701 (1544)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 50¢	$352.44	$356.03	+$3.58	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
LI LightParadox	Warriorsavg 48.4¢	$463.96	$354.51	-$109.45	31% 441-967 (1408)
VE Venusian	Warriorsavg 47.5¢	$345.2	$337.84	-$7.36	31% 444-971 (1415)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Rocketsavg 48.2¢	$664.11	$328.88	+$12.77	47% 279-315 (594)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48.2¢	$167.79	$179.22	+$17.64
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50¢	$154.4	$149.66	-$4.87
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 50.6¢	$584.88	$240	+$19.47	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 50.6¢	$160.41	$163.29	+$9.38
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48.3¢	$76.4	$76.71	+$10.09
MA MadridTimeCTR	Rocketsavg 46.2¢	$221.21	$236.9	+$15.69	32% 444-952 (1396)
LI Limousin	Warriorsavg 43.2¢	$198.85	$232.45	+$33.6	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Warriorsavg 56.2¢	$104.86	$104.75	-$0.11	53% 305-275 (580)
PA Pan9XCTR	Rocketsavg 48.6¢	$114.42	$68.06	+$2.99	49% 786-829 (1615)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$51	$53.5	+$2.5	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 41¢	$11.95	$11.95	-$0	55% 218-176 (394)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Warriorsavg 43.6¢	$8.51	$9.55	+$1.04	39% 233-367 (600)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 50¢	$8.35	$8.93	+$0.58	45% 304-377 (681)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$5.04	$4.59	-$0.45	41% 71-102 (173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rockets

Invested

$21,777.33

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$864.52

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Multicoloured-Serf

Warriors

Invested

$17,418.16

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

EdZacharyCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,299.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$200

Record

3-113 (116)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,414.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.11

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Rockets$692.6350.5¢+$13.72

Warriors$721.5750.2¢-$24.83

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$2,187.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$844.26

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,037.3

Value

$938.08

PnL

-$76.58

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Warriors$596.5450.4¢-$49.03

Rockets$415.0657.3¢-$27.55

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$723.9

Value

$749.3

PnL

+$25.4

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$683.55

Value

$565.39

PnL

-$21.8

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Warriors$443.1244.3¢-$33.34

Rockets$143.4854.6¢+$11.53

biying88888ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$788.84

Value

$554.54

PnL

-$14.48

Record

38%

128-207 (335)

Both legs:

Rockets$35556.4¢-$46.79

Warriors$212.5244¢+$32.31

alpheclabs2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$384.07

Value

$406.6

PnL

+$22.53

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,726.65

Value

$366.03

PnL

-$219.7

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$352.44

Value

$356.03

PnL

+$3.58

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

LightParadox

Warriors

Invested

$463.96

Value

$354.51

PnL

-$109.45

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Venusian

Warriors

Invested

$345.2

Value

$337.84

PnL

-$7.36

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$664.11

Value

$328.88

PnL

+$12.77

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

Both legs:

Rockets$167.7948.2¢+$17.64

Warriors$154.450¢-$4.87

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$584.88

Value

$240

PnL

+$19.47

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Rockets$160.4150.6¢+$9.38

Warriors$76.448.3¢+$10.09

MadridTimeCTR

Rockets

Invested

$221.21

Value

$236.9

PnL

+$15.69

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Limousin

Warriors

Invested

$198.85

Value

$232.45

PnL

+$33.6

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Warriors

Invested

$104.86

Value

$104.75

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Pan9XCTR

Rockets

Invested

$114.42

Value

$68.06

PnL

+$2.99

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$51

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$11.95

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

justaluckydude<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.51

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$1.04

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

lryyyCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$0.58

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.45

Record

41%

71-102 (173)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.