Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (38%) · Rockets at 79¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets79¢Warriors21¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 38%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$410.78

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 79¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets79%

Warriors21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,795

Combined PnL+$558.36

Warriors10 traders

Total Value$904.27

Total Shares3,419

Combined PnL-$147.58

Rockets — 38%Warriors — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rockets) and the top 1000 (11 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$57.41	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884	Rocketsavg 66.8¢	$724.76	$923.56	+$198.79	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
SU suntori	Rocketsavg 61¢	$571.42	$772.82	+$201.4	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
RN1	Rocketsavg 72.7¢	$649.71	$750.85	+$101.14	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Warriorsavg 31.5¢	$657.35	$552.68	-$104.67	55% 843-701 (1544)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 74.7¢	$501.34	$383.6	-$1.74	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TA takeormakeCTR	Warriorsavg 22.4¢	$101.65	$95.13	-$6.52	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 38¢	$94.62	$89.56	-$5.06	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 25.3¢	$77.79	$60.43	+$5.68	49% 786-829 (1615)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 36¢	$66.28	$38.66	-$27.62	31% 438-969 (1407)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 25¢	$25	$26.5	+$1.5	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 41¢	$34.16	$23.75	-$10.42	53% 305-275 (580)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rocketsavg 67¢	$20.1	$21.45	+$1.35	49% 973-998 (1971)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 39¢	$14.73	$13.59	-$1.15	40% 438-657 (1095)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 22¢	$1.95	$2.35	+$0.4	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.63	+$0.27	60% 2757-1855 (4612)

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$1,256.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$57.41

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884

Rockets

Invested

$724.76

Value

$923.56

PnL

+$198.79

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

suntori

Rockets

Invested

$571.42

Value

$772.82

PnL

+$201.4

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$649.71

Value

$750.85

PnL

+$101.14

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Warriors

Invested

$657.35

Value

$552.68

PnL

-$104.67

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$501.34

Value

$383.6

PnL

-$1.74

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

takeormakeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$101.65

Value

$95.13

PnL

-$6.52

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$94.62

Value

$89.56

PnL

-$5.06

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$77.79

Value

$60.43

PnL

+$5.68

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

LimousinCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$66.28

Value

$38.66

PnL

-$27.62

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$25

Value

$26.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$34.16

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$10.42

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

ferdinand2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20.1

Value

$21.45

PnL

+$1.35

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

sentrioCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$14.73

Value

$13.59

PnL

-$1.15

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.27

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rockets) and the top 1000 (11 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.