Spread: Rockets (-17.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (62%) · Warriors at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets12¢Warriors88¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$4.61

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 88¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets12%

Warriors88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,333

Combined PnL+$26.01

Rockets5 traders

Total Value$47.52

Total Shares302

Combined PnL-$21.4

Warriors — 62%Rockets — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Warriorsavg 81.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$13.61	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
CUTJALENHURTS	Warriorsavg 70¢	$909.3	$974.25	+$64.95	52% 2592-2431 (5023)
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 77.4¢	$493.73	$501.9	+$8.17	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 77.4¢	$353.08	$346.56	-$6.52
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 21.7¢	$140.65	$155.34	+$14.69
65 6512395314597884	Warriorsavg 83.3¢	$413.88	$414.62	+$0.74	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
38 38791873984189	Warriorsavg 79.3¢	$505.79	$286.76	+$39.06	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 80¢	$120.8	$124.57	+$3.77	52% 235-217 (452)
PA Pan9X	Warriorsavg 79.5¢	$132.33	$82.06	-$3.2	49% 786-829 (1615)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 20¢	$33.76	$25.32	-$8.44	31% 444-971 (1415)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Warriorsavg 81.2¢	$26.83	$17.11	-$2.92	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 31¢	$22.03	$12.44	-$9.59	53% 305-275 (580)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 20¢	$6.26	$4.7	-$1.56	32% 444-952 (1396)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 24¢	$4.08	$2.97	-$1.11	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 20¢	$2.79	$2.09	-$0.7	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Warriorsavg 79¢	$1.1K	$2	-$90	55% 843-701 (1544)

Flaznorp

Warriors

Invested

$1,930.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$13.61

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

CUTJALENHURTS

Warriors

Invested

$909.3

Value

$974.25

PnL

+$64.95

Record

52%

2592-2431 (5023)

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$493.73

Value

$501.9

PnL

+$8.17

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Warriors$353.0877.4¢-$6.52

Rockets$140.6521.7¢+$14.69

6512395314597884

Warriors

Invested

$413.88

Value

$414.62

PnL

+$0.74

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

38791873984189

Warriors

Invested

$505.79

Value

$286.76

PnL

+$39.06

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$120.8

Value

$124.57

PnL

+$3.77

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Pan9X

Warriors

Invested

$132.33

Value

$82.06

PnL

-$3.2

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

VenusianCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33.76

Value

$25.32

PnL

-$8.44

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

ferdinand2<$100

Warriors

Invested

$26.83

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$2.92

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$22.03

Value

$12.44

PnL

-$9.59

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.26

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$1.56

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$4.08

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$1.11

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

LimousinCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$0.7

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Warriors

Invested

$1,090

Value

PnL

-$90

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.