Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 219.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$588.81

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 79¢

+46% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,409

Combined PnL+$799.12

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,240

Combined PnL-$210.31

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$190.21	48% 116-124 (240)
nigiri99	Overavg 56.1¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$608.91	52% 388-362 (750)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$200	3% 20-638 (658)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41¢	$221.4	$226.8	+$5.4	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$140.41	$129.82	-$10.59	53% 852-766 (1618)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$46.91	$43.21	-$3.7	54% 1122-947 (2069)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41.3¢	$28.57	$29.06	+$0.49	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$26.8	$25.2	-$1.6	56% 312-248 (560)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.2	-$0.2	38% 509-821 (1330)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.29	$2.18	-$0.1	59% 3584-2449 (6033)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$2,016.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$190.21

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,462.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$608.91

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$1,880

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$200

Record

20-638 (658)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$221.4

Value

$226.8

PnL

+$5.4

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$140.41

Value

$129.82

PnL

-$10.59

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.91

Value

$43.21

PnL

-$3.7

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.57

Value

$29.06

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.8

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

3584-2449 (6033)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.