Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 245.5

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (65%) · Over at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$41.9

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,310

Combined PnL+$371.5

Over11 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,040

Combined PnL-$329.6

Under — 35%Over — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 42.8¢	$991	$1.1K	+$132.21	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57¢	$2.4K	$781.54	-$391.56	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
AN Anon455	Overavg 51.7¢	$673.05	$677.58	+$4.53	49% 430-445 (875)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 43¢	$500	$563.95	+$63.95	45% 140-171 (311)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51¢	$281.25	$401.71	+$120.46	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 47.2¢	$281.25	$313.1	+$31.85	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 41.3¢	$273.74	$311.84	+$38.1	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TA takeormake	Overavg 43.8¢	$263.91	$301.28	+$37.36	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$217.68	$236.63	+$18.95	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
RN1	Overavg 57.3¢	$236.05	$232.87	-$3.18	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$230.92	$231.71	+$0.79	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.1¢	$132.04	$131.87	-$0.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$98.88	$99.84	+$0.96
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 27.6¢	$77.26	$96.6	+$19.34	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$74.01	$71.84	-$2.17	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 27.7¢	$38.8	$48.3	+$9.5	65% 668-360 (1028)
dips.<$100	Overavg 27¢	$25.92	$33.12	+$7.2	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 58¢	$17.4	$17.55	+$0.15	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$15.76	$17.49	+$1.73	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 57¢	$181.38	$12.4	-$46.52	47% 3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$991

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$132.21

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,371.76

Value

$781.54

PnL

-$391.56

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$673.05

Value

$677.58

PnL

+$4.53

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$563.95

PnL

+$63.95

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$281.25

Value

$401.71

PnL

+$120.46

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$281.25

Value

$313.1

PnL

+$31.85

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$273.74

Value

$311.84

PnL

+$38.1

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$263.91

Value

$301.28

PnL

+$37.36

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$217.68

Value

$236.63

PnL

+$18.95

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

RN1

Over

Invested

$236.05

Value

$232.87

PnL

-$3.18

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$230.92

Value

$231.71

PnL

+$0.79

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

Over$132.0452.1¢-$0.17

Under$98.8847.5¢+$0.96

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$77.26

Value

$96.6

PnL

+$19.34

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.01

Value

$71.84

PnL

-$2.17

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$38.8

Value

$48.3

PnL

+$9.5

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$25.92

Value

$33.12

PnL

+$7.2

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$15.76

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$1.73

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$181.38

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$46.52

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.