Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 67¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$345.19

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 67¢

+45% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,888

Combined PnL+$484.16

Under4 traders

Total Value$224.82

Total Shares719

Combined PnL-$138.97

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Overavg 41.5¢	$776.85	$1.2K	+$383.26	49% 430-445 (875)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$717.12	$614.42	-$14.18	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$340.03	$419.51	+$79.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.3¢	$271.6	$194.92	-$93.66
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.7¢	$823.77	$422.24	+$59.01	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53¢	$237.44	$215.04	-$22.4	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 45.3¢	$165.49	$157.07	-$0.55	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 44.6¢	$120.04	$123.69	+$3.65	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$174.98	$108.72	-$66.26	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
RN1<$100	Overavg 53¢	$74.49	$75.9	+$1.41	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 41¢	$38.13	$60.92	+$22.78	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
dips.<$100	Overavg 41¢	$38.13	$60.92	+$22.78	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$69.56	$54.2	+$7.33	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$91	$54.08	-$36.92	45% 140-171 (311)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$83.16	$48.51	-$34.65	43% 216-282 (498)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 51¢	$44.88	$47.08	+$2.2	46% 877-1050 (1927)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$14.65	$13.5	-$1.15	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
balthazar<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.39	$13.19	+$3.8	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$7.09	$7.98	+$0.88	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$776.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$383.26

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$717.12

Value

$614.42

PnL

-$14.18

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$340.0354.7¢+$79.47

Under$271.645.3¢-$93.66

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$823.77

Value

$422.24

PnL

+$59.01

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$237.44

Value

$215.04

PnL

-$22.4

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$165.49

Value

$157.07

PnL

-$0.55

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$120.04

Value

$123.69

PnL

+$3.65

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$174.98

Value

$108.72

PnL

-$66.26

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$74.49

Value

$75.9

PnL

+$1.41

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$38.13

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$22.78

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$38.13

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$22.78

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$69.56

Value

$54.2

PnL

+$7.33

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91

Value

$54.08

PnL

-$36.92

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.16

Value

$48.51

PnL

-$34.65

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$44.88

Value

$47.08

PnL

+$2.2

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.65

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

balthazar<$100

Over

Invested

$9.39

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$3.8

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.