Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 237.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$21.36

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 78.5¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,488

Combined PnL+$207.88

Under4 traders

Total Value$433.13

Total Shares1,585

Combined PnL-$229.24

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 58¢	$551.81	$770.63	+$218.82	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 59.1¢	$768.54	$767.6	-$0.94	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 43.4¢	$637.02	$641.36	+$4.34	49% 430-445 (875)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.4¢	$481.9	$477.62	-$4.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$155.12	$163.74	+$8.62
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 42.9¢	$330.32	$181.1	-$149.22	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$132.12	$140.3	+$8.18	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 41¢	$198.18	$108.76	-$89.42	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$82.25	$83.87	+$1.61	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$57.68	$58.71	+$1.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$24.57	$25.16	+$0.59
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 55.8¢	$85.6	$68.25	-$17.35	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 58¢	$27.55	$38.48	+$10.93	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 56¢	$16.8	$13.95	-$2.85	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.75	$2.97	+$1.22	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.03	-$0.72	57% 3591-2667 (6258)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$551.81

Value

$770.63

PnL

+$218.82

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$768.54

Value

$767.6

PnL

-$0.94

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$637.02

Value

$641.36

PnL

+$4.34

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Both legs:

Under$481.943.4¢-$4.28

Over$155.1254¢+$8.62

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$330.32

Value

$181.1

PnL

-$149.22

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$132.12

Value

$140.3

PnL

+$8.18

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$198.18

Value

$108.76

PnL

-$89.42

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$82.25

Value

$83.87

PnL

+$1.61

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.6

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$17.35

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$27.55

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$10.93

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$16.8

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$2.85

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$1.22

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.72

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.