Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 85¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$148.71

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 84.5¢

+53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,829

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,530

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.9¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$993.26	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$715.12	45% 140-171 (311)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 59.6¢	$466.7	$630.07	+$163.37	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
AN Anon455	Overavg 53.4¢	$418.62	$427.04	+$8.42	49% 430-445 (875)
TA takeormake	Overavg 56.7¢	$331.46	$388.89	+$57.43	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$726.67	$316.82	-$409.85	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$330.35	$135.54	-$194.81	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
RN1CTR	Underavg 20¢	$101.43	$109.04	+$7.61	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.07	$60.68	-$5.39	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 32.2¢	$240.55	$42.72	-$2.14	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$66.06	$35.67	-$30.39	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MI micky456	Overavg 54¢	$515.45	$19.37	-$11.15	47% 590-656 (1246)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 76¢	$10.07	$7.84	-$0.01	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 33¢	$3.3	$4.7	+$1.4	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.69	$3.69	+$0	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Underavg 49¢	$356.72	$2.38	-$11.34	65% 668-360 (1028)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$3,377.16

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$993.26

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$2,123.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$715.12

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$466.7

Value

$630.07

PnL

+$163.37

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$418.62

Value

$427.04

PnL

+$8.42

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$331.46

Value

$388.89

PnL

+$57.43

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$726.67

Value

$316.82

PnL

-$409.85

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$330.35

Value

$135.54

PnL

-$194.81

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$101.43

Value

$109.04

PnL

+$7.61

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.07

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$5.39

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$240.55

Value

$42.72

PnL

-$2.14

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$35.67

PnL

-$30.39

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

micky456

Over

Invested

$515.45

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$11.15

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$10.07

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

suitcase6628CTR

Under

Invested

$356.72

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$11.34

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.