Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Heat (72%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Heat (-1.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (56%) · Pistons at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Heat72¢Pistons28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 56%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$197.66

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 28¢

-38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat72%

Pistons28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,498

Combined PnL-$330.89

Heat7 traders

Total Value$689.45

Total Shares1,161

Combined PnL+$133.23

Pistons — 56%Heat — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pistonsavg 39.7¢	$475.3	$497.23	+$21.94	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pistonsavg 49.2¢	$502.31	$275.43	-$226.88	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Heatavg 52.5¢	$210.28	$246.22	+$35.94	49% 572-596 (1168)
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 44.2¢	$142.39	$192.14	+$49.75	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MI micky456CTR	Pistonsavg 49.6¢	$262.22	$142.82	-$119.4	47% 590-656 (1246)
LI LightParadox	Heatavg 36¢	$109.8	$128.1	+$18.3	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
LI Limousin<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$66.06	$96.45	+$30.39	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 59¢	$86.34	$87.07	+$0.73	51% 970-935 (1905)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 39¢	$78	$83	+$5	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 36¢	$39.89	$45.98	+$6.09	37% 447-766 (1213)
RN1CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$73.5	$40.5	-$33	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 37¢	$32.56	$36.52	+$3.96	46% 877-1050 (1927)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 39.2¢	$48.8	$23.55	+$10.67	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
SU suntori<$100	Heatavg 62¢	$23.8	$21.54	-$2.26	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
38 38791873984189<$100	Heatavg 31¢	$2.14	$2.9	+$0.76	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
VE Venusian<$100	Heatavg 35¢	$1.75	$2.1	+$0.35	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pistons

Invested

$475.3

Value

$497.23

PnL

+$21.94

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

takeormakeCTR

Pistons

Invested

$502.31

Value

$275.43

PnL

-$226.88

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

CandleHammerDrums

Heat

Invested

$210.28

Value

$246.22

PnL

+$35.94

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$142.39

Value

$192.14

PnL

+$49.75

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

micky456CTR

Pistons

Invested

$262.22

Value

$142.82

PnL

-$119.4

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

LightParadox

Heat

Invested

$109.8

Value

$128.1

PnL

+$18.3

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Limousin<$100

Heat

Invested

$66.06

Value

$96.45

PnL

+$30.39

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$86.34

Value

$87.07

PnL

+$0.73

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$78

Value

$83

PnL

+$5

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$39.89

Value

$45.98

PnL

+$6.09

Record

37%

447-766 (1213)

RN1CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$73.5

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$33

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

lryyyCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$32.56

Value

$36.52

PnL

+$3.96

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$48.8

Value

$23.55

PnL

+$10.67

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

suntori<$100

Heat

Invested

$23.8

Value

$21.54

PnL

-$2.26

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

38791873984189<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.76

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Venusian<$100

Heat

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.35

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.