Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$25.52

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 42¢

-24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$312.24

Total Shares608

Combined PnL+$34.89

Over7 traders

Total Value$570.56

Total Shares1,044

Combined PnL-$9.37

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$356.03	$320.06	+$30.09	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$229.08	$255.99	+$32.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$66.06	$64.08	-$1.98
VE Venusian	Underavg 45.6¢	$266.3	$300.74	+$34.44	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.8¢	$1.3K	$270.29	+$19.59	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 59.6¢	$179.85	$158.2	-$21.65	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$114.07	$112.11	-$1.96	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$71.92	$65.72	-$6.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.7¢	$42.15	$46.39	+$4.24
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$54.99	$61.96	+$6.97	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$42.97	$34.61	-$8.36	46% 526-624 (1150)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$24.92	$18.37	-$6.55	47% 589-654 (1243)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$14.7	$15.6	+$0.9	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$11.8	$11.52	-$0.28	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.06	$9.06	+$0	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 42¢	$1.99	$2.44	+$0.45	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$356.03

Value

$320.06

PnL

+$30.09

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Both legs:

Under$229.0846.1¢+$32.08

Over$66.0650¢-$1.98

Venusian

Under

Invested

$266.3

Value

$300.74

PnL

+$34.44

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,269.78

Value

$270.29

PnL

+$19.59

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$179.85

Value

$158.2

PnL

-$21.65

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$114.07

Value

$112.11

PnL

-$1.96

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Over$71.9258¢-$6.2

Under$42.1542.7¢+$4.24

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.99

Value

$61.96

PnL

+$6.97

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.97

Value

$34.61

PnL

-$8.36

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.92

Value

$18.37

PnL

-$6.55

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.45

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.