Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 221.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 72¢ · $787 held · ended Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$787.04

Combined PnL

$15.41

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 72¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$461.83

Total Shares1,504

Combined PnL-$55.68

Over4 traders

Total Value$325.21

Total Shares493

Combined PnL+$71.09

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.3¢	$329.6	$210.15	-$56.69	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 67.5¢	$880.26	$144.41	+$110.63	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
SU suntori	Overavg 81¢	$181.66	$134.56	-$47.1	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$26.46	$58.8	+$32.34	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$78.87	$52.58	-$26.29	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$66.06	$46.42	-$19.64	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 61.6¢	$35.33	$42.43	+$7.09	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 24.4¢	$23.64	$38.79	+$15.15	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 32.4¢	$30.07	$37.17	+$7.1	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 33.7¢	$6.34	$7.51	+$1.18	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$14.03	$5.64	-$8.39	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32.1¢	$7.48	$4.77	-$0.44	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.35	$3.81	+$0.46	58% 3760-2730 (6490)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$329.6

Value

$210.15

PnL

-$56.69

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$880.26

Value

$144.41

PnL

+$110.63

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

suntori

Over

Invested

$181.66

Value

$134.56

PnL

-$47.1

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.46

Value

$58.8

PnL

+$32.34

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.87

Value

$52.58

PnL

-$26.29

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$46.42

PnL

-$19.64

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$35.33

Value

$42.43

PnL

+$7.09

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.64

Value

$38.79

PnL

+$15.15

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.07

Value

$37.17

PnL

+$7.1

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.34

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.03

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$8.39

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.48

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.44

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.