Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (50%) · Nuggets at 57¢ · $912 held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets57¢Pelicans43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 50%

Total Value

$912.3

Combined PnL

$38.23

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 57¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets57%

Pelicans43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$631.29

Total Shares908

Combined PnL-$43.92

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$281.01

Total Shares818

Combined PnL+$82.15

Nuggets — 50%Pelicans — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Nuggetsavg 73¢	$350.35	$384	+$33.65	63% 26-15 (41)
FL Flaznorp	Nuggetsavg 75.9¢	$263.38	$196.09	-$67.28	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pelicansavg 22.8¢	$86.25	$159.21	+$72.96	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 25.1¢	$48.46	$68.47	+$20.01	49% 430-445 (875)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 27¢	$59.13	$43.8	-$15.33	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 76.4¢	$42.26	$35.69	-$6.57	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
MI micky456<$100	Nuggetsavg 74¢	$17.75	$13.91	-$3.84	47% 590-656 (1246)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 13¢	$2.26	$6.15	+$3.89	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 29¢	$2.76	$3.38	+$0.62	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
nigiri99<$100	Nuggetsavg 74¢	$1.48	$1.6	+$0.12	51% 639-619 (1258)

bigbeliever

Nuggets

Invested

$350.35

Value

$384

PnL

+$33.65

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

Flaznorp

Nuggets

Invested

$263.38

Value

$196.09

PnL

-$67.28

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

takeormakeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$86.25

Value

$159.21

PnL

+$72.96

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$48.46

Value

$68.47

PnL

+$20.01

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$59.13

Value

$43.8

PnL

-$15.33

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$42.26

Value

$35.69

PnL

-$6.57

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

micky456<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$17.75

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$3.84

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.26

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$3.89

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.62

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

nigiri99<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.