Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Pelicans (63%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (57%) · Nuggets at 37¢ · $421 held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets37¢Pelicans63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$420.54

Combined PnL

-$3.81

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 37¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets37%

Pelicans63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$145.78

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$7.14

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$130.01

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$3.33

Nuggets — 57%Pelicans — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 63¢	$144.86	$144.76	-$0.1	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 63¢	$112.48	$115.16	+$2.68
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 38.8¢	$32.38	$29.6	-$2.78
VE VenusianCTR	Nuggetsavg 37¢	$132.12	$126.76	-$5.36	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
AN Anon455	Pelicansavg 63¢	$112.48	$115.16	+$2.68	49% 430-443 (873)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 36¢	$12.96	$14.14	+$1.17	57% 3585-2663 (6248)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Pelicansavg 64¢	$12.16	$12.73	+$0.57	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$5.39	$3.36	-$2.04	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
MI micky456<$100	Pelicansavg 51¢	$2.04	$2.12	+$0.08	47% 589-654 (1243)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.52	-$0.92	49% 1751-1796 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$144.86

Value

$144.76

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

Both legs:

Pelicans$112.4863¢+$2.68

Nuggets$32.3838.8¢-$2.78

VenusianCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$132.12

Value

$126.76

PnL

-$5.36

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

Anon455

Pelicans

Invested

$112.48

Value

$115.16

PnL

+$2.68

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$12.96

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$1.17

Record

57%

3585-2663 (6248)

Flaznorp<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$12.16

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$5.39

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

micky456<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.92

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.