Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (43%) · Pelicans at 53¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets47¢Pelicans53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 43%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$123.04

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 53¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets47%

Pelicans53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares14,938

Combined PnL-$127.85

Nuggets8 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares15,154

Combined PnL+$4.81

Pelicans — 43%Nuggets — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Pelicansavg 55.5¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$53.51	28% 47-121 (168)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Nuggetsavg 44.5¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$4.5	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
TM TMingchan	Pelicansavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$72.54	32% 20-42 (62)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Nuggetsavg 45¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$43.6	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
AN Anon455CTR	Nuggetsavg 45¢	$450	$475	+$25	49% 429-439 (868)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nuggetsavg 45¢	$100.35	$105.93	+$5.58	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 45¢	$72.9	$76.95	+$4.05	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$66.07	$70.57	+$4.5	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$66.07	$70.57	+$4.5	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Pelicansavg 55¢	$30.55	$29.44	-$1.11	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Pelicansavg 56¢	$19.28	$18.21	-$1.07	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44.3¢	$12.7	$9.82	+$0.27	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
MI micky456<$100	Pelicansavg 55¢	$13.95	$9.28	+$0.33	47% 589-654 (1243)
NO NotJump<$100	Pelicansavg 52¢	$5.25	$5.3	+$0.05	51% 917-874 (1791)

luckycat888888

Pelicans

Invested

$5,553.47

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$53.51

Record

28%

47-121 (168)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$4,906.29

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$4.5

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

TMingchan

Pelicans

Invested

$2,611.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$72.54

Record

32%

20-42 (62)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$1,506.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.6

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

Anon455CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$450

Value

$475

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

38791873984189CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$100.35

Value

$105.93

PnL

+$5.58

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$72.9

Value

$76.95

PnL

+$4.05

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$66.07

Value

$70.57

PnL

+$4.5

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$66.07

Value

$70.57

PnL

+$4.5

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

Flaznorp<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$30.55

Value

$29.44

PnL

-$1.11

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$19.28

Value

$18.21

PnL

-$1.07

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$12.7

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.27

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

micky456<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$13.95

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

NotJump<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.