Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 248.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$67.37

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 67¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,947

Combined PnL+$63.9

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,415

Combined PnL-$131.28

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 62.7¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$334.68	55% 750-604 (1354)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$35.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.9¢	$261.2	$631.35	+$370.15
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 55¢	$755.03	$844.92	+$89.88	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1	Underavg 68.5¢	$800.8	$764.9	-$35.9	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 38.3¢	$2.0K	$733.91	-$520.31	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.3¢	$751.72	$539.37	-$212.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 82.4¢	$221.2	$194.54	-$307.96
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$696.5	$668.57	-$27.93	31% 423-941 (1364)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Overavg 44.1¢	$400	$249.32	-$150.68	49% 27-28 (55)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 63.3¢	$209.52	$201.62	-$4.27	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$132.78	$150.05	+$17.27	32% 424-920 (1344)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$132.78	$122.89	-$9.89	31% 423-938 (1361)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56.8¢	$68.7	$82.89	+$14.19	49% 698-741 (1439)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13.2¢	$17.07	$33.51	+$16.44	—
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16	$27.5	+$11.5	64% 283-162 (445)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16	$27.5	+$11.5	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 23.5¢	$2.35	$2.75	+$0.4	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$1.99	$2.11	+$0.11	53% 1860-1677 (3537)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,099.05

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$334.68

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

Both legs:

Under$1,837.8562.7¢-$35.47

Over$261.215.9¢+$370.15

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$755.03

Value

$844.92

PnL

+$89.88

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1

Under

Invested

$800.8

Value

$764.9

PnL

-$35.9

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,997.59

Value

$733.91

PnL

-$520.31

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Both legs:

Over$751.7238.3¢-$212.35

Under$221.282.4¢-$307.96

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$696.5

Value

$668.57

PnL

-$27.93

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$249.32

PnL

-$150.68

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$209.52

Value

$201.62

PnL

-$4.27

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$132.78

Value

$150.05

PnL

+$17.27

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$132.78

Value

$122.89

PnL

-$9.89

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$68.7

Value

$82.89

PnL

+$14.19

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.07

Value

$33.51

PnL

+$16.44

Record

—

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

64%

283-162 (445)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

60%

2627-1728 (4355)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.4

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1860-1677 (3537)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.