Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (53%) · Grizzlies at 91¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets9¢Grizzlies91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 53%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$26.47

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 91¢

+40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets9%

Grizzlies91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies9 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,645

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Nuggets8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,814

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Grizzlies — 53%Nuggets — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Grizzliesavg 62.3¢	$3.0K	$4.3K	+$1.4K	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Grizzliesavg 66.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$31.47	55% 750-604 (1354)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nuggetsavg 30.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$12.85	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
RN1	Grizzliesavg 73.6¢	$646	$673.5	+$27.49	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
TA takeormake	Grizzliesavg 66.7¢	$742.69	$645.1	-$97.59	58% 3218-2312 (5530)
SL SlickRick123	Grizzliesavg 65¢	$319.15	$341.24	+$22.09	13% 55-363 (418)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Nuggetsavg 36¢	$969.2	$242.3	-$726.9	15% 57-313 (370)
65 6512395314597884	Grizzliesavg 61.4¢	$161.66	$208.14	+$46.48	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189	Grizzliesavg 88.7¢	$174.97	$178.56	+$3.59	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
PA Pan9X	Grizzliesavg 79.3¢	$130.9	$120	+$15.37	49% 698-741 (1439)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nuggetsavg 37.2¢	$470.38	$113.76	-$356.63	53% 1860-1677 (3537)
AN Anon455CTR	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$105.35	$88.15	-$17.2	45% 187-225 (412)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$59.95	$64.31	+$4.36	38% 222-363 (585)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Nuggetsavg 40.1¢	$199.17	$44.67	-$154.5	32% 424-920 (1344)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Nuggetsavg 35¢	$171.85	$44.19	-$127.66	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 11.8¢	$36.27	$27.56	-$8.71	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 34¢	$56.78	$15.03	-$41.75	31% 423-941 (1364)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,972.33

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,286.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$31.47

Record

55%

750-604 (1354)

FlaznorpCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$1,359.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$12.85

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

RN1

Grizzlies

Invested

$646

Value

$673.5

PnL

+$27.49

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

takeormake

Grizzlies

Invested

$742.69

Value

$645.1

PnL

-$97.59

Record

58%

3218-2312 (5530)

SlickRick123

Grizzlies

Invested

$319.15

Value

$341.24

PnL

+$22.09

Record

13%

55-363 (418)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$969.2

Value

$242.3

PnL

-$726.9

Record

15%

57-313 (370)

6512395314597884

Grizzlies

Invested

$161.66

Value

$208.14

PnL

+$46.48

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189

Grizzlies

Invested

$174.97

Value

$178.56

PnL

+$3.59

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Pan9X

Grizzlies

Invested

$130.9

Value

$120

PnL

+$15.37

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$470.38

Value

$113.76

PnL

-$356.63

Record

53%

1860-1677 (3537)

Anon455CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$105.35

Value

$88.15

PnL

-$17.2

Record

45%

187-225 (412)

justaluckydude<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$59.95

Value

$64.31

PnL

+$4.36

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

MadridTimeCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$199.17

Value

$44.67

PnL

-$154.5

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$171.85

Value

$44.19

PnL

-$127.66

Record

60%

2627-1728 (4355)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$36.27

Value

$27.56

PnL

-$8.71

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$56.78

Value

$15.03

PnL

-$41.75

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.