Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 40¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$273.04

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 40¢

-18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL+$158.15

Under5 traders

Total Value$613.41

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$114.89

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$755.5	$1.1K	+$201.72	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.5¢	$337.96	$664.77	+$160.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$563.47	$458.64	+$41.1
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$779.25	$856.18	+$76.93	53% 218-191 (409)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$455.44	$565.8	+$127.43	51% 289-274 (563)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.6¢	$334.13	$406.16	+$102.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$121.31	$159.64	+$24.75
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 54.5¢	$568.22	$412.89	-$38.52	42% 132-179 (311)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$339.58	$345.93	+$6.34	57% 104-80 (184)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.1¢	$240.75	$231	-$9.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.7¢	$98.83	$114.93	+$16.09
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$293.89	$345.26	+$113.43	48% 436-463 (899)
VE Venusian	Underavg 46.6¢	$206.47	$272.31	+$65.84	27% 128-352 (480)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46.2¢	$117.02	$155.87	+$38.85	28% 131-332 (463)
LI Limousin	Underavg 44.1¢	$108.09	$136.8	+$28.71	26% 127-364 (491)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$116.16	$120.87	-$6.74	22% 85-296 (381)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 69.2¢	$63.66	$40.48	-$22.26	21% 77-287 (364)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$64.75	$33.17	+$4.27	49% 194-203 (397)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$8.9	$16.32	+$7.42	46% 178-209 (387)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.16	$9.52	+$1.36	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 14¢	$4.2	$7.95	+$3.75	59% 1209-854 (2063)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$755.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$201.72

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Over$337.9628.5¢+$160.62

Under$563.4754.1¢+$41.1

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$779.25

Value

$856.18

PnL

+$76.93

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$455.44

Value

$565.8

PnL

+$127.43

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

Both legs:

Over$334.1343.6¢+$102.68

Under$121.3135.7¢+$24.75

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$568.22

Value

$412.89

PnL

-$38.52

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$339.58

Value

$345.93

PnL

+$6.34

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

Under$240.7539.1¢-$9.75

Over$98.8353.7¢+$16.09

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$293.89

Value

$345.26

PnL

+$113.43

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$206.47

Value

$272.31

PnL

+$65.84

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$117.02

Value

$155.87

PnL

+$38.85

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$108.09

Value

$136.8

PnL

+$28.71

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$116.16

Value

$120.87

PnL

-$6.74

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$63.66

Value

$40.48

PnL

-$22.26

Record

21%

77-287 (364)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.75

Value

$33.17

PnL

+$4.27

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$7.42

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.16

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$1.36

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$3.75

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.