Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Nuggets (67%). 21 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)
21 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (75%) · Rockets at 34¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
28
Rockets 75%
3 arb excluded
$31.5K
$-3.8K
46¢ → 33.5¢
-27% since entry · 21 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
21 of 28 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
21 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Nuggetsavg 62.8¢ | $5.5K | $5.8K | +$329.17 | — |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $4.4K | $4.4K | +$34.79 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Nuggetsavg 55.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.6K | +$407.67 | — |
 nehcnehcCTR | Rocketsavg 48¢ | $4.7K | $3.6K | $-1.1K | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Rocketsavg 45.6¢ | $4.7K | $3.5K | $-1.2K | — |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $2.3K | $1.7K | -$588.8 | — |
HI hi774cCTR | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $2.1K | $1.5K | -$529.96 | — |
FU Fujimi888 | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $878.9 | $1.1K | +$194.37 | — |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 46.1¢ | $988.75 | $819 | -$218.75 | — |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 46.1¢ | $806.75 | $586.25 | -$220.5 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $182 | $232.75 | +$1.75 | |
IA ianf2026CTR | Rocketsavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $766.5 | -$241.5 | — |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 45.9¢ | $850.27 | $735.68 | -$170.73 | — |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 45.9¢ | $642.25 | $469 | -$173.25 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 51.9¢ | $208.02 | $266.68 | +$2.52 | |
GA GaditimaCTR | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $880 | $670 | -$210 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR | Rocketsavg 45.1¢ | $778.35 | $611.98 | -$154.11 | — |
FO forecastication4CTR | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $788.4 | $586.92 | -$201.48 | — |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $532.35 | $396.31 | -$136.05 | — |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $510.4 | $388.6 | -$121.8 | — |
LI LimousinCTR | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $490.95 | $365.49 | -$125.46 | — |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 46¢ | $360 | $333.75 | -$61.25 | — |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 46¢ | $230 | $167.5 | -$62.5 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $130 | $166.25 | +$1.25 | |
PU purplegatto | Nuggetsavg 67¢ | $168.84 | $167.58 | -$1.26 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Rocketsavg 47¢ | $176.87 | $126.16 | -$50.71 | — |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $59.4 | $44.22 | -$15.18 | — |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $49.2 | $40.13 | -$9.07 | — |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $44 | $33.5 | -$10.5 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Nuggetsavg 59.9¢ | $30.42 | $30.95 | +$0.52 | — |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 47¢ | $40.42 | $28.81 | -$11.61 | — |
nigiri99Invested
$5,519.83
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$329.17
Record
—
Invested
$4,382.13
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$34.79
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,325.01
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$407.67
Record
—
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,730.36
Value
$3.6K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
Invested
$4,713.04
Value
$3.5K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
—
Invested
$2,304
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$588.8
Record
—
Invested
$2,073.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$529.96
Record
—
Invested
$878.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$194.37
Record
—
Invested
$988.75
Value
$819
PnL
-$218.75
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$1,007.99
Value
$766.5
PnL
-$241.5
Record
—
Invested
$850.27
Value
$735.68
PnL
-$170.73
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$880
Value
$670
PnL
-$210
Record
—
Invested
$778.35
Value
$611.98
PnL
-$154.11
Record
—
Invested
$788.4
Value
$586.92
PnL
-$201.48
Record
—
Invested
$532.35
Value
$396.31
PnL
-$136.05
Record
—
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$510.4
Value
$388.6
PnL
-$121.8
Record
—
Invested
$490.95
Value
$365.49
PnL
-$125.46
Record
—
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$360
Value
$333.75
PnL
-$61.25
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$168.84
Value
$167.58
PnL
-$1.26
Record
—
Invested
$176.87
Value
$126.16
PnL
-$50.71
Record
—
Invested
$59.4
Value
$44.22
PnL
-$15.18
Record
—
Invested
$49.2
Value
$40.13
PnL
-$9.07
Record
—
Invested
$44
Value
$33.5
PnL
-$10.5
Record
—
Invested
$30.42
Value
$30.95
PnL
+$0.52
Record
—
Invested
$40.42
Value
$28.81
PnL
-$11.61
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Nuggets — $5.8K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Nuggets — $4.4K
VeryLucky888
Nuggets — $3.6K
nehcnehc
CTRRockets — $3.6K
HomeRunHazard
CTRRockets — $3.5K
Multicoloured-Serf
CTRRockets — $1.7K
hi774c
CTRRockets — $1.5K
Fujimi888
Nuggets — $1.1K
NM-P
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ianf2026
CTRRockets — $766.5