Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (86%) · Timberwolves at 91¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves91¢Mavericks9¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 86%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 91¢

+75% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves91%

Mavericks9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves12 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,021

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,724

Combined PnL-$219.7

Timberwolves — 86%Mavericks — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Timberwolvesavg 29.1¢	$630.66	$1.5K	+$1.2K	54% 1122-947 (2069)
nigiri99CTR	Mavericksavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$96.24	52% 399-371 (770)
65 6512395314597884	Timberwolvesavg 54.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$51.21	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 67.1¢	$746.63	$979.44	+$232.81	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
FL Flaznorp	Timberwolvesavg 62¢	$517.93	$710.54	+$192.61	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
TA takeormake	Timberwolvesavg 65.3¢	$257.33	$364.41	+$107.07	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
38 38791873984189	Timberwolvesavg 75.1¢	$327.77	$257.57	-$63.45	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Timberwolvesavg 56¢	$139.64	$140.89	+$1.25	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
RO ropetardCTR	Mavericksavg 37.7¢	$422.34	$106.4	-$315.94	73% 152-57 (209)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Timberwolvesavg 82¢	$56.58	$57.96	+$1.38	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Timberwolvesavg 82¢	$32.8	$33.6	+$0.8	63% 405-236 (641)
PA Pan9X<$100	Timberwolvesavg 59.7¢	$49.33	$21.95	-$3.18	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
LI Limousin<$100	Timberwolvesavg 20¢	$30.16	$19.6	-$10.56	34% 685-1328 (2013)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Timberwolvesavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.35	-$0.15	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Timberwolves

Invested

$630.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

nigiri99CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,299.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$96.24

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

6512395314597884

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,047.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.21

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$746.63

Value

$979.44

PnL

+$232.81

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Flaznorp

Timberwolves

Invested

$517.93

Value

$710.54

PnL

+$192.61

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

takeormake

Timberwolves

Invested

$257.33

Value

$364.41

PnL

+$107.07

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

38791873984189

Timberwolves

Invested

$327.77

Value

$257.57

PnL

-$63.45

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Timberwolves

Invested

$139.64

Value

$140.89

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

ropetardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$422.34

Value

$106.4

PnL

-$315.94

Record

73%

152-57 (209)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.58

Value

$57.96

PnL

+$1.38

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

suitcase6628<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$32.8

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

63%

405-236 (641)

Pan9X<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$49.33

Value

$21.95

PnL

-$3.18

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Limousin<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$30.16

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$10.56

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

ferdinand2<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.