Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 76¢

+39% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,586

Combined PnL+$961.75

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,417

Combined PnL+$55.33

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 53.9¢	$2.1K	$3.0K	+$881.24	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$289.98	49% 430-445 (875)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.1¢	$616.59	$636.62	+$20.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$710	$400	-$310
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 72¢	$413.95	$416.82	+$2.87	51% 528-501 (1029)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 60.2¢	$185.23	$233.08	+$47.85	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 12.9¢	$1.2K	$203.5	+$480.64	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 42.8¢	$379.72	$199.4	-$180.32	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 38¢	$194.95	$123.16	-$71.79	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 48.1¢	$59.04	$100.65	+$41.61	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 39.1¢	$110.99	$63.88	-$47.11	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42¢	$185.93	$57.49	-$128.44	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 61¢	$53.68	$53.24	-$0.44	46% 877-1050 (1927)
RN1<$100	Overavg 73¢	$34.11	$35.51	+$1.4	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 57.8¢	$21.6	$21.37	-$0.24	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 61¢	$28.65	$19.4	-$9.53	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$9.88	$9.36	-$0.52	44% 283-358 (641)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 60¢	$2.25	$2.1	-$0.15	47% 590-656 (1246)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,143.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$881.24

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,326.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$289.98

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Both legs:

Over$616.5958.1¢+$20.02

Under$71071¢-$310

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$413.95

Value

$416.82

PnL

+$2.87

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$185.23

Value

$233.08

PnL

+$47.85

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,151.69

Value

$203.5

PnL

+$480.64

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$379.72

Value

$199.4

PnL

-$180.32

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$194.95

Value

$123.16

PnL

-$71.79

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$59.04

Value

$100.65

PnL

+$41.61

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$110.99

Value

$63.88

PnL

-$47.11

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$185.93

Value

$57.49

PnL

-$128.44

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$53.68

Value

$53.24

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$34.11

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$1.4

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$28.65

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$9.53

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$0.52

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.