Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 54¢ · $294 held · ended Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$294.42

Combined PnL

$46.07

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 54¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$210.76

Total Shares298

Combined PnL+$28.58

Over5 traders

Total Value$83.66

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$17.49

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 69¢	$116.79	$118.48	+$1.69	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$43.17	$64.06	+$20.89	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 47¢	$30.04	$41.77	+$11.73	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 49¢	$28.82	$41.18	+$12.35	49% 430-443 (873)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 49¢	$6.54	$9.34	+$2.8	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.4	$6	-$3.4	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.6	$6	-$1.6	58% 3734-2702 (6436)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$3.1	$4.6	+$1.5	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.9	$3	+$0.1	47% 3487-3859 (7346)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$116.79

Value

$118.48

PnL

+$1.69

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.17

Value

$64.06

PnL

+$20.89

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$30.04

Value

$41.77

PnL

+$11.73

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$28.82

Value

$41.18

PnL

+$12.35

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.54

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$2.8

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

PnL

-$3.4

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

58%

3734-2702 (6436)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.