Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$53.11

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 45.5¢

-11% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,119

Combined PnL-$205.63

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,068

Combined PnL+$152.52

Over — 79%Under — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$182.68	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47.2¢	$502.38	$579.6	+$77.22	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 47¢	$470	$545	+$75	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$120.68	$109.88	-$10.8	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$76.54	$80.1	+$3.56	57% 3585-2663 (6248)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 50¢	$132.13	$63.13	-$2.94	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$71.58	$61.94	-$9.64	49% 430-443 (873)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$23.29	$21.19	-$2.1	43% 206-273 (479)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$14.29	$13	-$1.29	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$12.62	$12.62	+$0	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$10.2	$9	-$1.2	51% 954-911 (1865)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$3.2	$4.5	+$1.3	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$3.3	+$0.3	45% 281-347 (628)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$3.13	$3.27	+$0.15	47% 589-654 (1243)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,391.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$182.68

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$502.38

Value

$579.6

PnL

+$77.22

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$545

PnL

+$75

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$120.68

Value

$109.88

PnL

-$10.8

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.54

Value

$80.1

PnL

+$3.56

Record

57%

3585-2663 (6248)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$132.13

Value

$63.13

PnL

-$2.94

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.58

Value

$61.94

PnL

-$9.64

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.29

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$2.1

Record

43%

206-273 (479)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.29

Value

$13

PnL

-$1.29

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.62

Value

$12.62

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

PnL

-$1.2

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

281-347 (628)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.