Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 79¢ · $493 held · ended Nov 15

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$493.35

Combined PnL

-$8.16

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 79¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$242.15

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$20.51

Under6 traders

Total Value$188.32

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$28.67

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 75.2¢	$148.62	$156.2	+$7.58	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42¢	$120.54	$126.28	+$5.74	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 55¢	$63.25	$75.33	+$12.08	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 22¢	$59.16	$62.88	+$3.72	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
└ Under leg	Underavg 22¢	$39.76	$40.66	+$0.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.7¢	$19.4	$22.22	+$2.82
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$63.39	$28.25	-$35.14	46% 546-643 (1189)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$13.25	$12.83	-$0.43	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$7.38	$7.92	+$0.54	45% 281-347 (628)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$6.51	$6.98	+$0.48	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 78¢	$6.24	$6.32	+$0.08	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
nehcnehcCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$5.92	$6.06	+$0.14	37% 55-95 (150)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 54¢	$3.52	$4.3	+$0.78	49% 430-443 (873)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$148.62

Value

$156.2

PnL

+$7.58

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$120.54

Value

$126.28

PnL

+$5.74

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$63.25

Value

$75.33

PnL

+$12.08

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$59.16

Value

$62.88

PnL

+$3.72

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

Both legs:

Under$39.7622¢+$0.9

Over$19.467.7¢+$2.82

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.39

Value

$28.25

PnL

-$35.14

Record

46%

546-643 (1189)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.25

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.54

Record

45%

281-347 (628)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.48

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

nehcnehcCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

55-95 (150)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$3.52

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.78

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.