Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 84¢ · $720 held · ended Nov 15

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$720.21

Combined PnL

-$49.5

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 84¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$501.13

Total Shares691

Combined PnL+$35.86

Under6 traders

Total Value$219.08

Total Shares972

Combined PnL-$85.36

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 70¢	$337.55	$337.63	+$0.08	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 59¢	$232.53	$122.2	+$28.69	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 31.4¢	$186.39	$94.91	-$91.48	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$73.97	$72.6	-$1.37	49% 430-443 (873)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 58¢	$34.22	$41.3	+$7.08	45% 281-347 (628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$22.43	$25.47	+$3.04	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$12.8	$16.4	+$3.6	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$6.8	$8.2	+$1.4	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
nehcnehcCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.5	-$0.55	37% 55-95 (150)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$337.55

Value

$337.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$232.53

Value

$122.2

PnL

+$28.69

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$186.39

Value

$94.91

PnL

-$91.48

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.97

Value

$72.6

PnL

-$1.37

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$34.22

Value

$41.3

PnL

+$7.08

Record

45%

281-347 (628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.43

Value

$25.47

PnL

+$3.04

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.8

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

nehcnehcCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

37%

55-95 (150)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.