Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Cavaliers (80%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (29%) · Mavericks at 20¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers80¢Mavericks20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 29%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$300.46

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 20¢

-61% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers80%

Mavericks20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,675

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Cavaliers10 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,228

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Mavericks — 29%Cavaliers — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Mavericksavg 51.9¢	$3.9K	$2.5K	$-1.4K	51% 528-501 (1029)
VE Venusian	Cavaliersavg 39.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$443.3	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FL Flaznorp	Cavaliersavg 68.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$28.12	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LightParadox	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$660.7	$941.97	+$435.43	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cavaliersavg 57.8¢	$616.7	$609.91	+$135.05	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
SU suntori	Cavaliersavg 69.4¢	$505.71	$594.15	+$88.44	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
LI Limousin	Cavaliersavg 43.1¢	$126.31	$162.81	+$36.5	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$75.99	$70.77	-$5.22	49% 588-623 (1211)
RN1CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 33¢	$24.63	$25.37	+$0.75	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
MA MadridTime<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$10.5	$8.38	-$2.13	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Cavaliersavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$7.05	+$0.7	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Cavaliersavg 57¢	$5.44	$6.25	+$0.81	62% 240-146 (386)
TA takeormake<$100	Cavaliersavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.78	+$0.03	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$0.51	$0.48	-$0.04	47% 590-656 (1246)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,864.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Venusian

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,187.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$443.3

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Flaznorp

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,243.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$28.12

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LightParadox

Cavaliers

Invested

$660.7

Value

$941.97

PnL

+$435.43

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cavaliers

Invested

$616.7

Value

$609.91

PnL

+$135.05

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

suntori

Cavaliers

Invested

$505.71

Value

$594.15

PnL

+$88.44

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Limousin

Cavaliers

Invested

$126.31

Value

$162.81

PnL

+$36.5

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$75.99

Value

$70.77

PnL

-$5.22

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

RN1CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$24.63

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

MadridTime<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.5

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$2.13

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

ferdinand2<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.35

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

thatsabing0<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$5.44

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.81

Record

62%

240-146 (386)

takeormake<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

micky456CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.