Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (57%) · Cavaliers at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers91¢Mavericks9¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 57%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$273.31

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 91.4¢

+81% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers91%

Mavericks9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,832

Combined PnL+$859.13

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$526.34

Total Shares1,801

Combined PnL-$585.82

Cavaliers — 57%Mavericks — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Cavaliersavg 41.1¢	$647.39	$1.3K	+$631.21	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
TA takeormake	Cavaliersavg 65.1¢	$683.06	$614.28	-$68.78	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Mavericksavg 86.7¢	$606.91	$329	-$277.91	62% 104-64 (168)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cavaliersavg 59.1¢	$300.09	$299.79	-$0.3	51% 528-501 (1029)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 48.4¢	$169.56	$131.5	-$38.06	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cavaliersavg 53.8¢	$169.74	$101.62	+$109.91	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 13.7¢	$203.33	$94.8	+$168.65	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Cavaliersavg 78¢	$46.8	$55.5	+$8.7	65% 668-360 (1028)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 41¢	$206.28	$42.77	-$163.51	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Cavaliersavg 60.9¢	$24.36	$34.6	+$10.24	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mavericksavg 46.4¢	$105.55	$15.93	-$89.61	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Cavaliersavg 80¢	$11.2	$10.71	-$0.49	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 56.9¢	$36.33	$6.39	-$15.57	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 19¢	$1.9	$0.75	-$1.15	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

Flaznorp

Cavaliers

Invested

$647.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$631.21

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

takeormake

Cavaliers

Invested

$683.06

Value

$614.28

PnL

-$68.78

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Zzzz87CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$606.91

Value

$329

PnL

-$277.91

Record

62%

104-64 (168)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cavaliers

Invested

$300.09

Value

$299.79

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$169.56

Value

$131.5

PnL

-$38.06

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cavaliers

Invested

$169.74

Value

$101.62

PnL

+$109.91

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$203.33

Value

$94.8

PnL

+$168.65

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

suitcase6628<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$46.8

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$8.7

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$206.28

Value

$42.77

PnL

-$163.51

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$24.36

Value

$34.6

PnL

+$10.24

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

MadridTimeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$105.55

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$89.61

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

topdogbigboi<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$0.49

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.33

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$15.57

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.