Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 52¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

-$745.23

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 51.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,493

Combined PnL-$146.37

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares14,872

Combined PnL-$598.86

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QI qinlaobanCTR	Underavg 52¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$120	6% 12-175 (187)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 48¢	$4.6K	$3.9K	-$672.06	49% 136-144 (280)
nigiri99	Overavg 48.6¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$72.35	51% 793-768 (1561)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$1.64	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	+$0.94	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$78.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.3¢	$646.51	$726.43	+$79.92
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$56.76	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$884.21	$798.51	-$85.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.6¢	$668.39	$697.33	+$28.94
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$30.05	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	63% 152-88 (240)
RN1<$100	Overavg 52¢	$71.59	$75.03	+$3.44	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.08	$68.83	+$2.75	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 48¢	$28.8	$29.7	+$0.9	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$29.7	$18.34	-$0.26	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 50¢	$19.99	$16.39	-$3.6	46% 3434-3964 (7398)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$10.98	$12.24	+$1.26	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.8	-$0.2	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$1.17	$1.29	+$0.12	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

qinlaobanCTR

Under

Invested

$4,160

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$120

Record

12-175 (187)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$4,613.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$672.06

Record

49%

136-144 (280)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,427.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$72.35

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,157.52

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$1.64

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

Both legs:

Over$1,117.5248¢-$11.64

Under$1,04052¢+$10

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,443.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.94

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Under$1,143.7452.7¢-$78.98

Over$646.5146.3¢+$79.92

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,552.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$56.76

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Both legs:

Over$884.2147.6¢-$85.7

Under$668.3954.6¢+$28.94

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,084.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$30.05

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

152-88 (240)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$71.59

Value

$75.03

PnL

+$3.44

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.08

Value

$68.83

PnL

+$2.75

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.7

Value

$18.34

PnL

-$0.26

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$19.99

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$3.6

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.98

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$1.26

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.