Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 55¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$89.94

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 55¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,019

Combined PnL-$24.88

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,620

Combined PnL-$65.06

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$25.73	51% 793-768 (1561)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$935.67	-$54.04	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$780.91	$769.25	-$11.67	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$451.45	$447.73	-$3.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$329.47	$321.51	-$7.95
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.9¢	$443.46	$452.35	+$8.88	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$222.5	-$12.5	43% 589-793 (1382)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$198.24	$188.34	-$9.9	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44¢	$132.16	$150.26	+$18.1	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$125.48	$118.8	-$6.67	59% 3987-2766 (6753)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 52¢	$83.2	$74.4	-$8.8	49% 136-144 (280)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 58¢	$29.58	$30.35	+$0.77	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.62	$4.72	+$0.1	56% 710-561 (1271)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.76	$2.67	-$0.09	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	53% 2407-2143 (4550)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,650.73

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25.73

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,105.82

Value

$935.67

PnL

-$54.04

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$780.91

Value

$769.25

PnL

-$11.67

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

Both legs:

Under$451.4547.9¢-$3.71

Over$329.4753.8¢-$7.95

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$443.46

Value

$452.35

PnL

+$8.88

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

43%

589-793 (1382)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$198.24

Value

$188.34

PnL

-$9.9

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$132.16

Value

$150.26

PnL

+$18.1

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$125.48

Value

$118.8

PnL

-$6.67

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$83.2

Value

$74.4

PnL

-$8.8

Record

49%

136-144 (280)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$29.58

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

710-561 (1271)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.09

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.