Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$164.69

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 50¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,462

Combined PnL-$27.59

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,189

Combined PnL+$192.29

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.39	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$24.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$892.98	$881.31	-$11.67
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 56.6¢	$2.0K	$721.2	-$6.22	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$472.5	$514.78	+$42.27	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$343.14	$389.36	+$46.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$129.36	$125.42	-$3.94
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43.3¢	$396.48	$475.83	+$79.35	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
LI Limousin	Underavg 43.2¢	$328.48	$395.55	+$67.07	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 57.8¢	$248.61	$231.09	-$17.52	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 43.5¢	$217.5	$225	+$7.5	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
VE Venusian	Underavg 43.2¢	$198.24	$222.63	+$24.39	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
SU suitcase6628	Overavg 53¢	$907.87	$213.02	+$27.24	66% 803-421 (1224)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$210.14	$192.96	+$1.81	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$103.95	$109.73	+$6.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$87.19	$83.23	-$4.91
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56¢	$125.44	$115.36	-$10.08	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 44¢	$88	$97	+$9	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50¢	$95.23	$96.18	+$0.95	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 64¢	$99.84	$74.88	-$24.96	48% 654-715 (1369)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 44¢	$54.56	$58.9	+$4.34	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 55.8¢	$78.29	$38.96	+$3.95	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 44¢	$14.3	$13.98	-$0.33	44% 360-455 (815)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.11	$3.11	+$0	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.28	$2.28	+$0	59% 3987-2766 (6753)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,906.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$12.39

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

Both legs:

Over$1,013.155.2¢+$24.06

Under$892.9844.1¢-$11.67

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,046.4

Value

$721.2

PnL

-$6.22

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$472.5

Value

$514.78

PnL

+$42.27

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Under$343.1444.5¢+$46.22

Over$129.3651.1¢-$3.94

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$396.48

Value

$475.83

PnL

+$79.35

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$328.48

Value

$395.55

PnL

+$67.07

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$248.61

Value

$231.09

PnL

-$17.52

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$217.5

Value

$225

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$198.24

Value

$222.63

PnL

+$24.39

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

suitcase6628

Over

Invested

$907.87

Value

$213.02

PnL

+$27.24

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$210.14

Value

$192.96

PnL

+$1.81

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Under$103.9545¢+$6.72

Over$87.1955¢-$4.91

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$125.44

Value

$115.36

PnL

-$10.08

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$88

Value

$97

PnL

+$9

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$95.23

Value

$96.18

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$99.84

Value

$74.88

PnL

-$24.96

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$54.56

Value

$58.9

PnL

+$4.34

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$78.29

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$14.3

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$0.33

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.