Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 209.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 74¢ · $903 held · ended Nov 15

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$902.71

Combined PnL

-$14.48

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 73.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$572.22

Total Shares829

Combined PnL+$7.78

Under4 traders

Total Value$330.49

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL-$22.26

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 65¢	$246.78	$260.07	+$13.29	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.5¢	$202.12	$177.87	-$24.25	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
RN1	Overavg 68.5¢	$114.36	$117.74	+$3.38	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
MI micky456	Overavg 73¢	$109.5	$103.5	-$6	48% 654-715 (1369)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$73.8	$77.49	+$3.69	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 27.3¢	$76.34	$74.66	-$1.68	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 73¢	$73	$69	-$4	66% 803-421 (1224)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 65¢	$20.8	$21.92	+$1.12	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$0.49	$0.47	-$0.02	48% 4150-4555 (8705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$246.78

Value

$260.07

PnL

+$13.29

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$202.12

Value

$177.87

PnL

-$24.25

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

RN1

Over

Invested

$114.36

Value

$117.74

PnL

+$3.38

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

micky456

Over

Invested

$109.5

Value

$103.5

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.8

Value

$77.49

PnL

+$3.69

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.34

Value

$74.66

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$73

Value

$69

PnL

-$4

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$20.8

Value

$21.92

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.