Spread: Celtics (-6.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (69%) · Celtics at 99¢ · $641 held · ended Nov 15

Celtics99¢Mavericks1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 69%

Total Value

$641.46

Combined PnL

-$6.59

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 99¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics99%

Mavericks1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics9 traders

Total Value$581.54

Total Shares649

Combined PnL-$5.43

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$59.92

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$1.16

Celtics — 69%Mavericks — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 75¢	$150	$148	-$2	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
RN1	Celticsavg 81¢	$182.02	$142.04	-$16.8	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
38 38791873984189<$100	Celticsavg 72.7¢	$89.19	$73.67	+$6.79	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Celticsavg 95¢	$66.5	$66.85	+$0.35	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 73.1¢	$65.08	$53.8	+$4.92	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 90¢	$37.8	$38.64	+$0.84	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 27¢	$37.8	$37.8	+$0	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
MI micky456<$100	Celticsavg 90¢	$25.2	$25.76	+$0.56	48% 654-715 (1369)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Celticsavg 75¢	$21.18	$20.62	-$0.56	62% 295-180 (475)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 28.3¢	$14.82	$14.11	-$0.71	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 73¢	$11.68	$12.16	+$0.48	44% 360-455 (815)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 27¢	$8.43	$7.96	-$0.47	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 3¢	$0.03	$0.05	+$0.02	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$150

Value

$148

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$182.02

Value

$142.04

PnL

-$16.8

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

38791873984189<$100

Celtics

Invested

$89.19

Value

$73.67

PnL

+$6.79

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.5

Value

$66.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$65.08

Value

$53.8

PnL

+$4.92

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$37.8

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$0.84

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$37.8

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

micky456<$100

Celtics

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.76

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

thatsabing0<$100

Celtics

Invested

$21.18

Value

$20.62

PnL

-$0.56

Record

62%

295-180 (475)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$14.82

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.71

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$11.68

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$0.48

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

sentrioCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$8.43

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.47

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.