Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Celtics (55%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-28.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (64%) · Mavericks at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics55¢Mavericks45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$299.29

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 45.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics55%

Mavericks46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$582.24

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$135.95

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$424.88

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL-$435.25

Celtics — 36%Mavericks — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Celticsavg 17¢	$76.52	$328.57	+$252.06	38% 1507-2416 (3923)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 71.1¢	$286.1	$219.3	-$66.8	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
RN1CTR	Mavericksavg 43.8¢	$206.45	$214.62	+$8.17	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Celticsavg 71.1¢	$271.85	$205.81	-$66.04	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 71.1¢	$147.85	$153.81	+$5.96
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 62¢	$124	$52	-$72
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 49.1¢	$1.9K	$143.9	-$549.02	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 49.1¢	$138.5	$73.4	-$284.37
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 72¢	$68.59	$70.5	-$264.65
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Celticsavg 71¢	$130	$100	-$30	53% 7675-6754 (14429)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 71¢	$71	$74	+$3
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 59¢	$59	$26	-$33
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$66.08	$66.81	+$0.73	39% 1528-2435 (3963)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Mavericksavg 60¢	$132.19	$66.06	-$66.13	39% 1837-2824 (4661)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 72.8¢	$906.41	$31.78	-$298.31	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
PA Pan9X	Celticsavg 72¢	$113.14	$31.64	-$49.48	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 33¢	$18.48	$25.48	+$7	57% 4106-3040 (7146)
alpheclabs2CTR	Mavericksavg 58.6¢	$322.11	$19.68	-$86.43	46% 410-488 (898)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Celticsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.73	+$0.18	48% 2753-3004 (5757)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 42¢	$0.72	$0.45	-$0.28	49% 2963-3069 (6032)

Limousin

Celtics

Invested

$76.52

Value

$328.57

PnL

+$252.06

Record

38%

1507-2416 (3923)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$286.1

Value

$219.3

PnL

-$66.8

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

RN1CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$206.45

Value

$214.62

PnL

+$8.17

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$271.85

Value

$205.81

PnL

-$66.04

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

Both legs:

Celtics$147.8571.1¢+$5.96

Mavericks$12462¢-$72

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,904.09

Value

$143.9

PnL

-$549.02

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

Both legs:

Mavericks$138.549.1¢-$284.37

Celtics$68.5972¢-$264.65

cigarettesARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$130

Value

$100

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

7675-6754 (14429)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.08

Value

$66.81

PnL

+$0.73

Record

39%

1528-2435 (3963)

topdogbigboiCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$132.19

Value

$66.06

PnL

-$66.13

Record

39%

1837-2824 (4661)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$906.41

Value

$31.78

PnL

-$298.31

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

Pan9X

Celtics

Invested

$113.14

Value

$31.64

PnL

-$49.48

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$18.48

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$7

Record

57%

4106-3040 (7146)

alpheclabs2CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$322.11

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$86.43

Record

46%

410-488 (898)

ferdinand2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

2753-3004 (5757)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

2963-3069 (6032)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.