Spread: Celtics (-24.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (58%) · Celtics at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics82¢Mavericks18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$333.26

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 81.5¢

+115% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics82%

Mavericks19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,633

Combined PnL+$898.39

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$284.06

Total Shares1,629

Combined PnL-$565.12

Celtics — 58%Mavericks — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Celticsavg 23.8¢	$335.54	$807.66	+$546.63	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mavericksavg 64.6¢	$1.1K	$739.59	-$364.54	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 64.6¢	$953.95	$420.94	-$533.01
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 33.7¢	$150.19	$318.65	+$168.47
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 34.4¢	$443.34	$703.35	+$260.01	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1	Celticsavg 54.1¢	$624.42	$702.84	+$78.42	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 48¢	$249.34	$277.98	+$28.65	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 76¢	$737.32	$252.13	-$116.73	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 76¢	$190.03	$132.5	-$162.87
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 46¢	$116.97	$119.63	+$46.14
BI biying88888CTR	Mavericksavg 53.9¢	$644.59	$191.36	-$453.23	44% 268-345 (613)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$198.24	$88.87	-$109.37	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 47¢	$96.13	$27.19	-$15.72	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Celticsavg 72¢	$9.64	$9.98	+$0.33	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 16¢	$1.6	$1.8	+$0.2	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.44	+$0.06	44% 360-455 (815)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.25	+$0.05	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 71¢	$3.55	$0.78	-$2.78	48% 2668-2892 (5560)

LightParadox

Celtics

Invested

$335.54

Value

$807.66

PnL

+$546.63

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,104.14

Value

$739.59

PnL

-$364.54

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Mavericks$953.9564.6¢-$533.01

Celtics$150.1933.7¢+$168.47

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$443.34

Value

$703.35

PnL

+$260.01

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$624.42

Value

$702.84

PnL

+$78.42

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$249.34

Value

$277.98

PnL

+$28.65

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$737.32

Value

$252.13

PnL

-$116.73

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Mavericks$190.0376¢-$162.87

Celtics$116.9746¢+$46.14

biying88888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$644.59

Value

$191.36

PnL

-$453.23

Record

44%

268-345 (613)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$198.24

Value

$88.87

PnL

-$109.37

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$96.13

Value

$27.19

PnL

-$15.72

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

topdogbigboi<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$2.78

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.