Spread: Knicks (-9.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Knicks14¢Cavaliers86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 67%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$83.3

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 86.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks14%

Cavaliers87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,285

Combined PnL+$276.57

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$280.22

Total Shares2,130

Combined PnL-$193.27

Cavaliers — 67%Knicks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cavaliersavg 74¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$201.25	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cavaliersavg 85¢	$849.97	$854.97	+$5	55% 719-584 (1303)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 65.9¢	$205.47	$240.26	+$34.79	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Knicksavg 25.5¢	$373.6	$190.32	-$183.28	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1	Cavaliersavg 77¢	$118.58	$133.98	+$15.4	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 66.3¢	$67.59	$86.7	+$19.11	49% 693-734 (1427)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Knicksavg 15¢	$90.44	$81.4	-$9.04	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
SE sentrio<$100	Cavaliersavg 81.4¢	$20.34	$21.36	+$1.02	39% 395-620 (1015)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Knicksavg 15¢	$9.45	$8.51	-$0.94	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,294.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$201.25

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cavaliers

Invested

$849.97

Value

$854.97

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$205.47

Value

$240.26

PnL

+$34.79

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

6512395314597884CTR

Knicks

Invested

$373.6

Value

$190.32

PnL

-$183.28

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1

Cavaliers

Invested

$118.58

Value

$133.98

PnL

+$15.4

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$67.59

Value

$86.7

PnL

+$19.11

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$90.44

Value

$81.4

PnL

-$9.04

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

sentrio<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$20.34

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$1.02

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$9.45

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$0.94

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.