Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (44%) · Knicks at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Cavaliers34¢Knicks66¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 44%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$100.81

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 66.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers34%

Knicks67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$928.19

Total Shares1,710

Combined PnL-$156.07

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$493.48

Total Shares1,076

Combined PnL+$55.26

Knicks — 44%Cavaliers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Knicksavg 61.5¢	$723.05	$565.86	-$157.19	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cavaliersavg 41.1¢	$293.44	$371.29	+$77.85	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
RN1	Knicksavg 57¢	$401.56	$269.97	+$16.33	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
38 38791873984189<$100	Knicksavg 53.7¢	$88.25	$78.92	-$9.33	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49.9¢	$69.43	$46.57	-$22.86	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$43.66	$39.53	-$4.13	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 30¢	$30	$33.5	+$3.5	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 69¢	$19.32	$13.44	-$5.88	49% 692-733 (1425)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.6	+$0.9	31% 410-897 (1307)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Knicks

Invested

$723.05

Value

$565.86

PnL

-$157.19

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$293.44

Value

$371.29

PnL

+$77.85

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$401.56

Value

$269.97

PnL

+$16.33

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

38791873984189<$100

Knicks

Invested

$88.25

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$9.33

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$69.43

Value

$46.57

PnL

-$22.86

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$43.66

Value

$39.53

PnL

-$4.13

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$30

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$19.32

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$5.88

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.9

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.