Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (67%) · Heat at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Cavaliers<1¢Heat>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$188.7

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 99.6¢

+58% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers0%

Heat100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,910

Combined PnL+$299.1

Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$58.36

Total Shares1,524

Combined PnL-$487.8

Heat — 67%Cavaliers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (7 on Heat) disagree here.

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Heatavg 57¢	$570	$790	+$220	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 70.6¢	$588.3	$601.83	+$74.22	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
JU justaluckydude	Heatavg 72.8¢	$167.84	$116.28	-$34.47	44% 418-527 (945)
38 38791873984189	Heatavg 58.1¢	$198.75	$110.42	+$30.11	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
MI micky456<$100	Heatavg 73¢	$26.78	$36.02	+$9.24	47% 469-528 (997)
RN1CTR	Cavaliersavg 36.6¢	$500.47	$25.29	-$475.18	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 27¢	$27	$21	-$6	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 32.5¢	$18.69	$12.07	-$6.62	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Heatavg 79¢	$11.06	$11.06	+$0	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Heat

Invested

$570

Value

$790

PnL

+$220

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$588.3

Value

$601.83

PnL

+$74.22

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

justaluckydude

Heat

Invested

$167.84

Value

$116.28

PnL

-$34.47

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

38791873984189

Heat

Invested

$198.75

Value

$110.42

PnL

+$30.11

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

micky456<$100

Heat

Invested

$26.78

Value

$36.02

PnL

+$9.24

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

RN1CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$500.47

Value

$25.29

PnL

-$475.18

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$27

Value

$21

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$18.69

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$6.62

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ferdinand2<$100

Heat

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (7 on Heat) disagree here.

ctrCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.