Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (50%) · Heat at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Cavaliers<1¢Heat>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 50%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 99.6¢

+72% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers0%

Heat100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares10,179

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$839.03

Total Shares2,799

Combined PnL-$355.97

Heat — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Heatavg 52¢	$3.5K	$4.9K	+$1.4K	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
JU justaluckydude	Heatavg 65.9¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$631.49	44% 418-527 (945)
RN1	Heatavg 76.1¢	$894.54	$1.1K	+$162.04	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 48.1¢	$661.38	$410	-$251.38	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
AN Anon455CTR	Cavaliersavg 32¢	$320	$280	-$40	50% 358-364 (722)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Cavaliersavg 41.5¢	$124.5	$84	-$40.5	48% 462-493 (955)
TA takeormake<$100	Heatavg 75.7¢	$58.61	$65.28	+$6.66	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
38 38791873984189<$100	Heatavg 77¢	$64.58	$60.39	-$4.19	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
MI micky456<$100	Heatavg 63¢	$41.34	$41.98	+$0.64	47% 469-528 (997)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 41.9¢	$65.92	$36.96	-$14.57	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 39.4¢	$21.78	$15.49	-$6.29	37% 819-1385 (2204)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 26¢	$7.83	$7.83	-$0	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$7.98	$4.75	-$3.23	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Heatavg 49¢	$690	$2	+$310	54% 1316-1100 (2416)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Heat

Invested

$3,547.84

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

justaluckydude

Heat

Invested

$1,315.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$631.49

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

RN1

Heat

Invested

$894.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$162.04

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$661.38

Value

$410

PnL

-$251.38

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Anon455CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$320

Value

$280

PnL

-$40

Record

50%

358-364 (722)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$124.5

Value

$84

PnL

-$40.5

Record

48%

462-493 (955)

takeormake<$100

Heat

Invested

$58.61

Value

$65.28

PnL

+$6.66

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

38791873984189<$100

Heat

Invested

$64.58

Value

$60.39

PnL

-$4.19

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

micky456<$100

Heat

Invested

$41.34

Value

$41.98

PnL

+$0.64

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$65.92

Value

$36.96

PnL

-$14.57

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$21.78

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$6.29

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.98

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$3.23

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Heat

Invested

$690

Value

PnL

+$310

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.