Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 92¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$137.01

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 92¢

+50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,143

Combined PnL-$6.58

Under9 traders

Total Value$473.01

Total Shares1,403

Combined PnL-$130.43

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 66.8¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	+$63.78	54% 319-276 (595)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 58.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$89.45	52% 190-177 (367)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.5¢	$827.84	$997.44	+$169.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.2¢	$587.44	$507.29	-$80.15
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 60.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$130.45	48% 131-141 (272)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 57.8¢	$268.8	$425.31	+$156.51	30% 54-125 (179)
TA takeormake	Overavg 56.6¢	$439.8	$353.67	-$86.13	27% 84-223 (307)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 56.2¢	$206.87	$211.62	+$4.75	48% 85-92 (177)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47.1¢	$204.51	$193.03	-$11.49	31% 118-262 (380)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 39¢	$201.54	$136.24	+$39.78	28% 118-301 (419)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 25.1¢	$38.1	$44.75	+$6.65	50% 405-412 (817)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$37.33	$38.52	+$1.19	30% 122-284 (406)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$84.11	$28.21	-$55.89	57% 104-80 (184)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 34.6¢	$77.75	$18	-$59.75	52% 488-446 (934)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$56.95	$13.12	-$43.83	— 1-1 (2)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$33.45	$10.87	-$22.58	49% 183-194 (377)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.7	+$0.1	53% 274-241 (515)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.5	+$0.35	57% 76-58 (134)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,430.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$63.78

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,415.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$89.45

Record

52%

190-177 (367)

Both legs:

Over$827.8458.5¢+$169.59

Under$587.4434.2¢-$80.15

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$1,134.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$130.45

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$268.8

Value

$425.31

PnL

+$156.51

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$439.8

Value

$353.67

PnL

-$86.13

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$206.87

Value

$211.62

PnL

+$4.75

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$204.51

Value

$193.03

PnL

-$11.49

Record

31%

118-262 (380)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$201.54

Value

$136.24

PnL

+$39.78

Record

28%

118-301 (419)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.1

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$6.65

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$37.33

Value

$38.52

PnL

+$1.19

Record

30%

122-284 (406)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.11

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$55.89

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.75

Value

$18

PnL

-$59.75

Record

52%

488-446 (934)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.95

Value

$13.12

PnL

-$43.83

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.45

Value

$10.87

PnL

-$22.58

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

76-58 (134)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.